Quote Originally Posted by JeffreyGB
How accurate will it be generically to apply a "we make the best hand" ratio to the upper bound Jager mentioned?

(Side note: Jager, how would that shortcut work if your opp had put more money in than you? You have to put your call in as part of the pot and then your raise as the ratio of your call+his raise+initial pot?)

Repeating the above example, assuming the above sidenote is true: Jager's upper bound shows that we're betting 60 to win 80+40 = 60/140 = 3/7 =42%. We're 2:1 to make the best hand, so we adjust in that we only need a fold enough to get it down to 1:1 --> 42% - 42%/2 = 21%. That's pretty close to 19%, and could be calculated on the fly.

Let's try in the other examples:
Push on turn example: betting 70 to win 70+44+18 = 70/132 = 53%. To adjust for the 4:1 draw --> 53% - 53%/4 = 40%


hmm...either I messed up the maths, my side note was wrong, or this doesn't work. Ginger, can you tell me which?
Surely in adjusting we must slash HIS odds of winning when he calls. So in the 2:1 case its
42% - 58%/3 = 26% *he loses 1 in 3 of those times he calls*
And in the 4:1 case roughly
53% - 47%/5 = 44% is

The reason this won't be a great estimation is that of course he doesn't just call 58% or 53% of the time. But on the fly not too bad.

hmmmm, I might have to think about this one more carefully