http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/78...eorems-183304/

not sure if it's in correct theorem form and i've only heard of it being proven mathematically for limit games, but i thought it was a pretty well respected theorem. i'm almost certain that i'm a drooler for following it in this exact instance for the exact reasons that i did it (as you so dryly illustrated), but i don't think that means that there's no possible intelligent discussion to be had regarding the theorem.

EDIT: fwiw the theorem's served me well, profit-wise (although i'm almost certain using that as an argument will tilt you)