Nuts on turn vs chasing set hypothetical

Here's my question. You're dealt AQ on the button with one limper and you raise it up 5xBB. Limper is a standard tag but overcommitts good hands frequently. Let's assume stacks are 100BB for time being. He calls raise. 11.5 BB pot. Flop is TJ4. Limper checks, you cont bet with a 11.5 BB bet, limper calls. Pot is now 34.5BB. Turn is a K completing your broadway straight. Limper checks, you lead out with 15BB and limper instantly minraises to 30BB (standard set line).

You instantly put limper on set. You know he probably has 44 or TT and puts you on a high pair. Now, limper is the type of player who can sometimes see he's beat, but will usually rationalize that a set of tens is usually good here against a pf raise and cont bet. He won't give much credit to AQ and if you have KK he will call it bad luck and committ anyway.

If you reraise allin after his minraise, you will get a call and you will be ahead. You're only losing if board pairs of course. Here's my question. If you're confident limper will committ stack on turn and on river as long as river doesn't bring the one card straight (an A or a Q) what's the best play? Reraise all in on turn and call a paired river variance if you lose; you got your money in when you were ahead. Or, can you call the turn river bet looking to make sure you're not outdrawn knowing you will get his stack except for the small chance that an A or Q comes out?

Bonus points: Does, and if so how, your answer change if it's a 200BB, 300BB, or deeper stack hand?

0oo0, good topic

i like the hypothetical. i like getting it all in on the turn, as you only have 1 card left to see. if this were the flop i'd be a bit more hesitant. i never mind getting it all in with nuts (especially a str8) on the turn. the thing with a str8 is that you are NEVER going to improve. What if your scare card Does come, and he was really on something like 2pair? now that kills both of your action. i dont like outguessing myself in those situations, so to make it easier on myself id like ai turn.

flopped str8 multiway is a different story, i usually play it a bit slower on the flop, and if there are a bunch more people on the turn and the board pairs, or 3 to flush hits then i can fold. if not its another place i like getting it ai.

Well, if we look at it another way: you WANT him to be all-in, and if he's all-in, the next card is being dealt anyway. So you *could* see a call as simply a way of improving your chance to get him to commit a smaller part of his stack on the river, with a possible get-out clause for you if the board pairs and you're ABSOLUTELY sure he's got a set.

I'm also wondering if you could work out some math. Assuming he is going to committ on river minus the A or Q, which is a 12% chance of coming and the board will pair 20% of the time (I think I did that correct, 3 4's, 1 t, 3 j's, 3 k's).

So turn push EV is simply .80 * 101.50BB + .20 * -100BB = 81.2 - 20 = 61.2 BB

Now on the river you both have committed 46.5BB. The pot is 94.5BB. We're assuming you will get nothing extra from an A or Q, lose nothing extra from paired board, and else double up.

Now turn call EV is .20 * - 46.5BB + .12 * 48BB + .68 * 101.5BB = -9.3 + 5.76 + 69.02 = 65.48BB

Now I realize this is all on absolute assumptions of what op will do, but thoughts?

The math is relatively easy but I think you messed up with the pot sizes on the turn. The pot is 11.5 on the flop. You bet pot and villain calls so the pot should be 34.5 on the turn. I don't think it really matters though, except for the fact that we have slightly less money behind.

I hope you're referring to my original post. I actually picked that up when doing the math for the second post, forget to change that.

Get it all in on the turn

if you just call and a scare card comes for him or for you it could kill your pot. Hes showing strength so i get this one all in everytime and dont worry about the next card.

Originally Posted by bigred

I hope you're referring to my original post. I actually picked that up when doing the math for the second post, forget to change that.

Yeah I was. Anyway I like this idea and it seems correct that just calling the turn is more +EV if we are completely sure of our assumptions. That is a pretty big if though.

Originally Posted by izybx

Get it all in on the turn

if you just call and a scare card comes for him or for you it could kill your pot. Hes showing strength so i get this one all in everytime and dont worry about the next card.

My numbers seem to suggest otherwise. As stated, it could be a big if, but is it really? What will scare op besides an A or Q? Op will probably lead out on river and will have too much invested not to call RR all in, IMO.

The only thing that my calculation for a turn call may need to take into consideration is the chance of op checking river and whether he will call push, value bet, how much, and if this EV is greater than original turn push.

This one reminds me of another really great thread at 2+2 about a similar hand. I don't know the rules about linking to other forums though.

As long as you're not soliciting the site, it's fine to post.

Ok. This is the thread I was talking about:
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...fpart=all&vc=1

And here is the thread that started the one above:
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...fpart=all&vc=1

so youre folding the river if the board pairs?

Is he folding the turn if you push?

Originally Posted by izybx

so youre folding the river if the board pairs?

Is he folding the turn if you push?

My EV calculations assume he calls the push on turn...

I get it all in on the turn regardless. If he has a set I want to charge full price for him to fill up. Even if he misses I want to make sure no 4th card to a straight comes and kills my river action.

Originally Posted by WhooFleuryScores

I get it all in on the turn regardless. If he has a set I want to charge full price for him to fill up. Even if he misses I want to make sure no 4th card to a straight comes and kills my river action.

Even though math just showed that this thinking could be flawed? Besides, EV might be a little different if you take into the fact that he may crying call a 5-25 BB bet on an A or Q river. Makes it an even better decision.

The purpose of this thread is to examine this thought. It's how I normally play it as well, and now I'm thinking with the right read, it may not be the best move. I'm simply asking you guys to rethink your normal lines, not just state them, and then discuss.

Originally Posted by 2_Thumbs_Up

Ok. This is the thread I was talking about:
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...fpart=all&vc=1

And here is the thread that started the one above:
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...fpart=all&vc=1

I read the first URL about 20 posts deep before it got a little redundant. The argument seems to have two very opposite sides. One with their heart set on the golden rule "get your money in when your ahead if you can" and one side saying find the best +EV line. I appreciate the thread posts, it has solidified my belief in my new findings.

I also feel my example is more definitive as well, since it's a lot easier to put op on set and guess ops actions. My assumptions are very light assumptions, compared to their argument, that I feel has a little more general application to these kinds of situations.

At 100BB deep I could never fold the river anyhow if the board pairs at 3-1 odds( he could easily have a hand like KJ KT JT), instead I just push the turn to avoid scare cards. 300BB deep I value raise the turn as getting all the money in would be difficult otherwise. 200BB I also valueraise, but an amount which allows me to let the hand go on a paired river board.

an amount which allows me to let the hand go on a paired river board.

This is what I want to avoid though-I hate making crying calls on the river when I know I'm beat but math and pot odds require me to call.I'd rather just get my 300BB in on the turn and force fate to make me lose then me have to lay down on the river or worse pay off.

First of all, I don't understand why your analysis assumes he'll call if the river is a nine but fold if it's an ace or queen? Both of them put an obvious four-card straight on the board. That being said, there are ten cards in the deck that pair the board and ten cards that make a four-card straight, so even your hypothetical situation is EV-neutral.

Since you also don't know for sure that he has a set, and if he doesn't then folding the river would be a huge disaster, just go all-in. For example, I don't see why KJ isn't in his range.

in general, if you stand to win the same in 2 possible situations, but the amount lost is able to change, try to lose the least.

your ex)
200bb * (.8) - (94.5bb + x)*(.2) = total winnings

where x = 0 when the board pairs, 20% of the time. when you fold everytime to any bet.

so basically you lose 46.5bb when board pairs, and win 105

in real life, good luck getting it all in when 4 to a str8 hits, or if the board completes a flush (you didnt specify suit).

plus my formula is incorrect, the right side of the equation shouldnt be "total winnings", because i didnt subtract out how much you bet.

ps i felt like making a math equation for some reason this late at night, im exhausted but i feel someone smarter than i could make a more elegant mathematical model, please do.

ALWAYS GET IN AS MANY CHIPS AS POSSIBLE WHEN YOU ARE AHEAD.

I see that my example is incorrect and a little shortsighted. I'm sure there are better constructions that could be developed.

Originally Posted by BankItDrew

ALWAYS GET IN AS MANY CHIPS AS POSSIBLE WHEN YOU ARE AHEAD.

While this is a +EV move, I still think in some situations this kind of thinking is ignorant. Cocobill makes a good point with deepstacks. I also think player reads and tendencies also alter this equation. While my previous example may not be the best, I think it could be a step in the right direction.

Originally Posted by BankItDrew

ALWAYS GET IN AS MANY CHIPS AS POSSIBLE WHEN YOU ARE AHEAD.

Why get it in with 70% equity if you are certain you will get it in with 100% equity?

Originally Posted by 2_Thumbs_Up

Originally Posted by BankItDrew

ALWAYS GET IN AS MANY CHIPS AS POSSIBLE WHEN YOU ARE AHEAD.

Why get it in with 70% equity if you are certain you will get it in with 100% equity?

If you are certain you can get it in with 100% equity, it doesn't matter what you do or when you do it. I get it in as much as possible when I'm ahead because of scare cards against both villain and myself.

For example: villain holds QQ and you have flopped a set with JJ on a rainbow J52. It would suck if you slowplayed the flop and an ace or king came on the turn huh?