obvious draw misses..CC?

$0.02/$0.05 No Limit Holdem
PokerStars
9 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($4.01)
UTG+1 ($2)
MP1 ($6.22)
MP2 ($4.51)
MP3 ($0.90)
CO ($2.86)
BTN ($2.98)
kicKAss (SB) ($6.20)
BB ($4.94)

Pre-Flop: ($0.07, 9 players) kicKAss is SB
7 folds, kicKAss raises to $0.15, BB calls $0.10

Flop: ($0.30, 2 players)
kicKAss bets $0.20, BB calls $0.20

Turn: ($0.70, 2 players)
kicKAss bets $0.50, BB calls $0.50

River: ($1.70, 2 players)
kicKAss ($5.35)?

villain is a 20/10 over a small sample. I had not been attacking his blinds much but he had folded a couple and called 1 folding to my c bet. mostly from the Button not SB
on the turn I gave him a whole bunch of diamonds 79+ 87 66 55 and 10s is prolly the only possible overpair
on the river I will leave in JT QT KT AT diamonds that i think may call, but a whole bunch of his range is folding out. vs his calling/raising range here Im roughly a 35/65 dog.
is c/c a reasonable bet, the best line here? giving him some bluffing room with missed diamonds.

Will he value bet 2 pair hands?

I would just bet here, he is going to check back like over 90% imo.

i'd bet like 1.20 here and fold to action. but don't take my word for it i'm just a 5NL donk like you

Originally Posted by baudib

I would just bet here, he is going to check back like over 90% imo.

^^^ this.

I forgot to add 77 88 to his range. still 45/55 dog. and not sure he calls a river v bet with these
he would prolly chk back alot of his made hands here.
I felt that his range was so full of shit that he would hardly ever be calling a bet but could raise here quite easily if I did and I'd be put to a decision for all my chips. which prolly wouldn't be calling. I hate to miss value here but I am almost certainly behind his calling/raising range if I cant call a bluff reraise which I dont feel I can without more info on the guy saying he would bluff this river.

Originally Posted by kickass

I forgot to add 77 88 to his range. still 45/55 dog. and not sure he calls a river v bet with these
he would prolly chk back alot of his made hands here.
I felt that his range was so full of shit that he would hardly ever be calling a bet but could raise here quite easily if I did and I'd be put to a decision for all my chips. which prolly wouldn't be calling. I hate to miss value here but I am almost certainly behind his calling/raising range if I cant call a bluff reraise which I dont feel I can without more info on the guy saying he would bluff this river.

Hi bro i'd still like a bet fold even if you think you are a dog as in 45/55 because you are setting the price. Would you like chechking here and then face a shove or some ackward minibet? I think if you bet here as big as possible without being committed is the ideal solution

Are worse 9s shoving over a bet? If so it kills b/f imo. Maybe b/c or c/c is better?

i'd bet about a dollar. there are actually very few FD's which haven't made a pair now, - most of his range is single pair hands (well, two pair but whatever), with a small amount of slowplayed nuts. he seems to have far too many hands he will want to showdown for us to check a hand this strong, and not very many hands he will be likely to turn into bluffs. i don't even mind betting as small as $0.8 if you think he will call with shit like 75s to that size which he wouldn't vs $1

I tend to c/c these spots if I think villain has a ton of draws in his range, even call overbets. We're rarely behind, and if villain bothers to put us on a range, we have all sorts of semi-bluffs and bluffs that we fold to river bet. I'm not giving villain credit for hitting the flop hard, since he's flatting on a draw-heavy flop. He has flush draw a lot of the time here, and bets often enough imo to make some decent money on the river. I guess we lose value against pair+gutter hands, since he'll check these due to his showdown value against our bluffs with ace high. I guess it's villain dependent. I certainly don't feel comfortable any more if we see a river bet raised, and b/f feels horrible with trip nines bvb, so I prefer c/c. I could be losing value though.

I bet 1.2$ and snap fold to any sort of raise. This seems like a clear and solid vaule bet, there is so much worse in his range that could call. I think you can't discount JJ-QQ from his range and very rarely KK-AA, this is the micros.

Dunno how you are 45/55, lol you didn't discount ANY made hands?! That's absurd, he's obviously raising sets and 78 a >0% on the flop or the turn.

Originally Posted by Icanhastreebet

Dunno how you are 45/55, lol you didn't discount ANY made hands?! That's absurd, he's obviously raising sets and 78 a >0% on the flop or the turn.

yep. I comlpetley didnt consider this, his range will be weighted towards 2 pair hands that will call a bet and missed diamonds that wont. his slow played nuts range will be smaller, not really sure how I go about putting this into the calculation.

My question was really more about bluff catching. If he does choose to reraise me on the river I do have to fold.
what happened was I bet 90c and he doubled it, I hated life. but I station anyway given the price I didnt feel like I could fold. he showed A3o AIR. If he had of jammed I wouldve folded.
It does look like an obvious spot to bluff. how much would life suck if I had kings here.
sorry if this makes no sense i'm a little hungover.

At 5nl I don't think I'm ever folding this on the river. The more I think about this hand, the more I like b/c rather than c/c. With trip nines we're holding the near nuts at this level, especially after flop action. Sets and straights really ought to reraise us on flop, and I'd expect most villains to reraise us on turn with A9, since we have overpairs in our range that villain will think we rarely fold. If villain outflopped us with a set or straight, then I want to know he can slow play on draw heavy boards, so calling river at least gives us info we can use against him later. But since these hands make up a very small % of his range, I think we can profitable b/c river. I'm only really worried about tens full, but even then I expect most villains to 3bet tens in position bvb, so again I don't anticipate seeing this very often. The fact villain has total air shows us that he's capable of double-floating, so make a note about that and never, ever fold trips against this guy on the river on boards like this.

bet/call $.50

No matter what we decide on the river, we need to either get him to bet/shove his missed draws and gain some value from all the made hands he wants to check back. Hands like 67/77/T8dd/etc..

He has a really wide range of hands as it was BvB, he's in position, and this board presents not only a lot of draws, but a lot of pr+draws and the like.

It's hard for him to get to this river with a hand better than ours. Let's imagine he raises the flop with the vast majority of hands that have us beat on the end along with some strong draws that might have showdown value (like 5x diamonds, Ace high diamonds, TXdd, etc...) and calls with hands like 67o, 77, and whatever else would just call the flop.

Also, if he happens to have a hand like J9/Q9/97 we'd like him to shove, and betting big probably dissuades him from doing so.

So I just do what I like to do a lot, and bet the same amount on the river than I did on the turn. His really weak showdown hands will psychologically be forced to call while he still has plenty of room to either value cut himself or bluff shove.

Bet-fold .99c. Probably psychological, but I think a 6x or 5x hand calls .99 but might fold to $1.00- $1.30.

Your hand is too strong to check-call. Long term I think lesser SD value hands profit more from such a line as the only thing really betting the river when you check is the near nuts or nothing.

With non FH 6x or 5x I more look to check-call. Except 77+, A6 or 10x, I bet-fold those hands.

I think c/c is just fine here. If he is on the passive side I might bet though. There are merits to both.