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  1. #1
    Razvan729's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2010
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    1,135
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    Bucuresti, Romania

    Default odds experiment

    i was getting bored yesterday at work, had nothing to do.so i remembered odds in poker and decided to do a little experiment.

    pre flop the most common cases in which we found ourseves are :

    aprox: 50/50
    66/33
    80/20


    so for 50/50 i flliped a coin multiple times, the result amazed me... i flliped the same side of the coin 23 times in a row.... so even the 50/50 odds , there is the chance i could lose 23 times in a row.

    for 66/33 and 80/20 i used some little coloured balls from a game, also i was amazed by the results, with 3/1 odds to extract a red ball, i extractted the yellow one 17 times in a row. with 5/1 odds to get the red ball, i got the yellow one 30 times in a row.


    i did this all day long trying to see a pattern, but there is none,,,, i got all kind of results in all 3 cases and the only conclusion is that variance gets herself stabilized on a number of extractions ( dealt boards) bigger then we can count or experiment in a day and the only thing i can do in order to win at poker is that pre flop and after each betting round i am the favourite, that means reading my opps, establishing very accurate ranges and calculating my odds to win as close to the reality as i can and also try to play the same money on odds to get the variance right, if i play 5$ AA now and i lose, then i play AA with 2$ and i win is not ok, i need to play aprox the same amount every time. this way, even i will get nk of bad beats, losing hands, i know i played as a favourite and at some point variance will work out for my profit cause this is the only way it can be.

    sorry if its not in the right place , or if it is silly for many, but i think there are players like me that have to realise what i said here and this is why i wrote it
    Last edited by Razvan729; 12-19-2010 at 11:55 AM.

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