odds question?

You have KK

What are the odds of someone having AA?
10 player full table.

Yes I know its slim, but I'm just curious

Not sure about that one, I can give you some stats though.

The chances of getting AA is 220 - 1
The probability that no-one has one ace in their hand is 13.28%
The chances of 2 players getting pocket aces are 2,385,443,280 to 1.

As for the Kings and Aces, well I'm still looking for that!

since you have 2 kings, there are 50 cards left to distribute to the other 9 players.

(4C2) / (50C2) = probability someone will have pocket aces
* 9 and you have any of the other 9 players

so...roughly 4.4%

Had AA when another had KK, yesterday night and of course he got a K on the river.

Anyway it was the beginning of something strange. After the AA I got QQ,88 and 99 in the folowing hands. What are the odds for that? And of course only won with 88 and 99, thats what playing limit does to you

The odd thing, is that at Party Poker I have noticed that if you have a pocket pair.....most of the time at least one other person does as well.
It happens every once in a while at other sites, but not nearly the frequency it does at Party....has anyone else observed this?

Hmm I notice that my pocket pairs seem to come one after another, especially on Paradise.

The odd thing, is that at Party Poker I have noticed that if you have a pocket pair.....most of the time at least one other person does as well.
It happens every once in a while at other sites, but not nearly the frequency it does at Party....has anyone else observed this?

I have not noticed this on party poker and can assure you pretty well that if the odds were off at party poker people would notice really fast because of poker tracker.

I now usually play at Stars and UB - I have not played at PP since I got poker tracker so I have no evidence of this - just something I noticed (nagging at the back of my mind)
I plan on making a redeposit at PP soon so I will keep and eye on it. Probably nothing to it, but it was enough to attract my attention....I suppose we'll see.

but not nearly the frequency it does at Party....has anyone else observed this?

Oh hell yeah I notice it all the time. In the session before last I had AA twice and once called by kings which hit trips to win, the other had kings too but didnt hit and I won. I also had KK twice both all in preflop and both beat by pocket AA. (all 4 of the hands were all in preflop) I couldnt believe it. But it seems like at least 20% of the time I have AA someone else has KK or close to it and about 20% of the time I have KK someone has AA. But yeah I only notice this on Party skins.

I have not noticed this on party poker and can assure you pretty well that if the odds were off at party poker people would notice really fast because of poker tracker.

Yeah youre probably right. Just one of those things you think you notice but its really because your seeing 1000s upon 1000s of hands.

If you hold a pocket pair it IS statistically more likely for someone else to hold a pocket pair. Simillarly, if you don't hold a pocket pair, it is slightly more likely that no one else does either.

Very slight, but worth mentioning.

Originally Posted by lhoney2

If you hold a pocket pair it IS statistically more likely for someone else to hold a pocket pair. Simillarly, if you don't hold a pocket pair, it is slightly more likely that no one else does either.

Very slight, but worth mentioning.

but is it statistically significant?

but is it statistically significant?

Statistically significant - yes. Useful for playing poker, probably not. I only mention it because I have seen the "they deal multiple players pocket pairs to increase the rake" kind of post one too many times.

Of course, if we start asking the "is it significant?" question too often around here, we won't have much to talk about.

If you ignore the fact that the events aren't mutually exclusive, the odds of at least one person being dealt any pocket pair are:

1 - (16/17)^10 = 45.4%

Given that one person is dealt a pocket pair, the odds of at least one more person at the table being dealt a pocket pair is approximately:

1 - (15.78/16.78)^9 = 42.5%

That puts the probability of two or more people having a pocket pair at about 20%, or about once every five deals.

There are some things I've ignored in the calculation, so it's just a ballpark number. It does show that it happens more often than you might think.

As far as the KK vs. AA example, that should happen roughly once every 500 hands. Thing is, you'll probably see the hole cards almost every single time it happens since no one lays them down preflop, and an A will appear fairly infrequently to scare the KK.

I have seen the "they deal multiple players pocket pairs to increase the rake" kind of post one too many times.

I am relatively new here, so I have never seen one of these posts....and that though had not occured to me. However is it beyond reasonable thought to consider this could be true? The rake is how they make money, and they deal how many thousands of hands per hour - so overall it would not throw a red flag, but what if they only did it on certain tables...or randomly rotate the tables they do it on. The net result is miniscule over a day or week - but over a year the profits could be significant.
I'm not looking to start an argument....and yes I realize it sounds like wild conspiracy theory, but I am asking because I do not know - perhaps people have already looked into this and it has been proven false?

Originally Posted by DavSimon

I have seen the "they deal multiple players pocket pairs to increase the rake" kind of post one too many times.

I am relatively new here, so I have never seen one of these posts....and that though had not occured to me. However is it beyond reasonable thought to consider this could be true?

If this were true, I don't think they would export hand histories, especially HH's showing every set of hole cards that sees the showdown.

DavSimon,
I really think there is too much for any of the major poker rooms to lose by engaging in that sort of practice.

Think about how much Party makes on just one $5 SNG - they make $10 and they have them starting every minute or so. Look at all the 2-4 and up games they have going 2-3 dollars per pot. Way too much to lose to participate in these kinds of SHENANIGANS. A busy online poker room is a cash cow without doing any of that.

Believe it or not a bar just opened not too far from my house named Shenanigans, if any of you are familiar with Office Space.

My 2 cents:

Its immaterial you have KK. The question might be what are the odds that one my opps have pocket AA (lets assume you dont have Ax in your own hand) with any 2 preflop cards I have? Or what is the odds that 1 of the 9 opps have AA? .45% for 1 person to have... .45% * 9 -> 4%

If the question was whats the odds of one person have KK and another person having AA, thats a different question. If you assume you are already holding KK, another opp having AA should be 4%.

Does anyone know if this is roughly correct?

Those numbers sound close enough to me Krapp.

I really think there is too much for any of the major poker rooms to lose by engaging in that sort of practice

I am sure you are right....just an interesting train of thought anyway......I will probably keep an eye on it, if for no other reason than my curiosity is peaked now.