pfr - check-call, check-call, lead - what to do?

villain is unknown, seems TAG 15-12-ish over less than 40 hands
haven't seen anything noteworthy from him
whole table is pretty active
there are few, if any, 8x hands in his range
i can't see him playing TT+ like this, but maybe i'm wrong?
i don't see him calling much that i beat if i raise, but maybe i'm wrong?
i hit the timebank on this one...

$0.10/$0.25 Ante $0.05 No Limit Holdem
8 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($50.48) 202bb
UTG+1 ($59.85) 239bb
MP1 ($48.85) 195bb
MP2 ($116.39) 466bb
daven (CO) ($70.55) 282bb
BTN ($25) 100bb
SB ($30.25) 121bb
BB ($68.71) 275bb

Pre-Flop: ($0.75, 8 players) daven is CO
UTG raises to $0.75, 3 folds, daven calls $0.75, 3 folds

Flop: ($2.25, 2 players)
UTG checks, daven bets $1.60, UTG calls $1.60

Turn: ($5.45, 2 players)
UTG checks, daven bets $3.90, UTG calls $3.90

River: ($13.25, 2 players)
UTG bets $7.50, $7.5 to daven ($64.3)?

I think fold here is my standard line. Most villains only take that line with something like QQ+. I guess there are a few bluffs in there but with a standard tag I'd assume very few.

But at the same time I'll often take villain's exact line here as a bluff, sometimes even with no outs from the flop onwards, if I think you barrel too much and that my image means I'd get away with it. And I do so with sufficient success.

- FH/quads (some villains will raise any PP pre)
- KK+ (more likely AA)
- an unlikely 89s, A8s, 75s
- bluffs

Obv. with the above range I never ever raise this river.

meh... I think fold, but guess you could justify a call "for Shania" and for info

His line doesn't make much sense, total air is discounted but stuff like AK/AQ/AJs is possible. I think calling is ok given pot odds and the fact that whatever he shows down can give you a good insight into how he thinks.

i.e. AA here can tell you he like to slowplay/pot control on semi connected boards when deep, also leading river is a weird line with most hands.

What hands do you call with here if you fold JJ?

For a 15/12-ish player, the only likely hand to open UTG with an 8 is 88. Assuming he's opening less than 12 from that seat, his tentative range is something like 88+ AJ+ KQ and maybe KTs+

JJ is likely 55-60% against this kind of range, and with position plus the prospect that if I call, the majority of flops will have at least one overcard, which means they fit his range much better than my JJ, I lean toward 3betting pre.

I don't think you can just remove 66 from his range.

In fact, every pp from 66+ can make sense depending on villains thought process. Add AK in sometimes as well and that seems about right. Which makes it an easy call. I change my mind, don't fold, call.

Getting like 3:1, and its a decent bluff card. I cant really see folding.

I like fold, I see a slow played 56 or 35 not liking the paired board

Meh not a money decision prolly seems redic to fold jacks if you think about it. What did you expect villain to call with when you bet flop and turn? Some reason I still think its a fold like soul read he has them aces but meh. Drunkard posting

Originally Posted by rong

I think fold here is my standard line. Most villains only take that line with something like QQ+. I guess there are a few bluffs in there but with a standard tag I'd assume very few.

But at the same time I'll often take villain's exact line here as a bluff, sometimes even with no outs from the flop onwards, if I think you barrel too much and that my image means I'd get away with it. And I do so with sufficient success.

If you seriously believe he has QQ+ and bluffs you should probably be raising the river not folding.

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

What hands do you call with here if you fold JJ?

A lot of people not realizing this is basically the top of our range itt.

Hrm, you mean top of our calling range? (im not being an ass, im seriously asking that noob of a question)

Yeah I don't get it.

Surely our range for made hands includes 44, 66 and 88, even if the lower pps are discounted. Plus flopped 2p and straights from 57s need to be considered, plus 78s and 89s, maybe 68s and 8Ts, maybe A8s.

In terms of hands that might fold to the river bet I guess we have pps 77 and 99-JJ plus missed straight draws, maybe As6s. Add some bluffs due to no cb from villain.

So villains range is pretty strong with value hands but mostly non-nut hands (say 66, 88-AA). Our range us quite polarized with nut hands (trips +) and missed draws plus medium value hands.

So is your point that it is a good spot for villain to bet/fold and therefore us to raise/fold?

Originally Posted by rong

In fact, every pp from 66+ can make sense depending on villains thought process. Add AK in sometimes as well and that seems about right. Which makes it an easy call. I change my mind, don't fold, call.

Except that 66 isn't necessary in the opening range of a 12 pfr player, especially if we assume he's opening narrower from earlier positions. No, we can't absolutely rule it out - or 44 - but the question to ask is more about how likely it is as opposed to whether it's possible vs impossible.

After 40 hands it's a bit of a leap to disregard it imo.

Seems like a call for the reasons you give op (and seems too nitty to fold). I think your image is important here though.

Originally Posted by rong

So is your point that it is a good spot for villain to bet/fold and therefore us to raise/fold?

My point is that if villains range is as weak on the river as you think in your original post which it very well could be you should be raising the river if he has a fold button.

Also I believe this is the top of our range because KK+ 3bs, QQ may 3b, 44/66 are pretty bad cold calls pre unless we have reads like he c/f a lot or a fish in the blinds which will actually may our range significantly wider and give us some combos of 8x but also a lot more bluffs that we may 2 barrel.

Originally Posted by Icanhastreebet

My point is that if villains range is as weak on the river as you think in your original post which it very well could be you should be raising the river if he has a fold button.

Also I believe this is the top of our range because KK+ 3bs, QQ may 3b, 44/66 are pretty bad cold calls pre unless we have reads like he c/f a lot or a fish in the blinds which will actually may our range significantly wider and give us some combos of 8x but also a lot more bluffs that we may 2 barrel.

The bold is what I was getting at in my other post. Hi5 happy new year.

All bar one at the table is deep, 120+ bb. Wouldn't this widen the range of pocket pairs that can be set mined? UTG could call a 3 bet here with any pair against all bar the smallest stack.