Philosophical Question

People always complain about bad beats and talk about how it seems like they don't suckout on others nearly as often as they get sucked out on, right?

But, shouldn't that be true of a great player? Think about it, let's say a great player is ahead 80% of the time when the $ goes into the pot. How in the world could you expect to suck out on people as often as you get sucked out on? You should take roughly 4 times the # of bad beats! (Now obvioulsy you're going to be raking in roughly 4 times as many pots too.)

Folks, unless I'm missing something, don't get down about taking the beats. It means you're taking them over your knee and pwning their butts, the belt just comes back to bite you in the face once in a while.

Well, while it is true that a good player is going to get their money in good more often, I'm not sure if we can apply that to everyone who takes a bad beat here. The majority of it is just whining. I mean I understand the intent of your OP and appreciate it; however, people just need to face the facts when it comes to poker.

1) You are not being plotted against.

2) You lose exactly as often as you are supposed to, but don't notice due to the small sample size.

3) Realize negative variance isn't the only kind of variance. How do you think you were "crushing" it at times? It's called a heater (positive variance). You are likely not that good (not in general, but when you are running hot).

4) It's a part of poker. And it's what keeps the money flowing the direction of the better players. If your hand always held, suddenly all the bad players would realize they are never winning. And the ones that can't afford that, and currently play on false hope that they are just "unlucky", will leave. And you will pray for some bad beats.

tilt is illogical, but it's still there!

Bad beats as opposed to coolers mean that some idiot is getting it in against you when you have way the best of it. If you have a lot of bad beats, but no significant profit in the long run, then you are the sucker. Less bad beats just mean you're playing against more solid opponents.

Originally Posted by XxStacksxX

3) Realize negative variance isn't the only kind of variance. How do you think you were "crushing" it at times? It's called a heater (positive variance). You are likely not that good (not in general, but when you are running hot).

^^^ this

One of my biggest leaks as a losing/barely winning player was to attribute all my successful sessions to good play and all the bad ones to negative variance. Really hinders the learning curve.

Originally Posted by Robb

Originally Posted by XxStacksxX

3) Realize negative variance isn't the only kind of variance. How do you think you were "crushing" it at times? It's called a heater (positive variance). You are likely not that good (not in general, but when you are running hot).

^^^ this

One of my biggest leaks as a losing/barely winning player was to attribute all my successful sessions to good play and all the bad ones to negative variance. Really hinders the learning curve.

Ahh the heater confidence. I always seem to look at them the opposite. When I'm winnings it's a huge heater, and when I'm losing, "God, I suck and need to start 4 tabling to focus on my play again!" (and I do if I have like more than a 5 buyin downwswing).

It's not necessarily true at all that winning players get their money in good more often than not. Some of the best players are just really good at picking spots to apply pressure, and when they get the money in they're behind more often than not, but they make up for it with all the folds they get. This is discussed in Super System.

Originally Posted by XxStacksxX

3) Realize negative variance isn't the only kind of variance. How do you think you were "crushing" it at times? It's called a heater (positive variance). You are likely not that good (not in general, but when you are running hot).

This. Your chances of a 10+ buy-in downswing is more of a function of your win-rate (game/seat selection!) than how loose/aggressive you play.

mcatdog, interesting thought.
guess I was mainly thinking when the calls come, but you're right, great players will get their money in and often have a 0% chance of taking a beat 'cause the other guy ain't calling. True.