Never ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever check/fold this turn!
They're still getting it in with any Ax which is trips, which your full house beats. They're never folding these hands. Boats make up a very small tiny part of their ranges. Far more likely are AK AQ AJ AT, there are many more combinations of these in their ranges than 88 AA or A8, A2. Folding would be a huge mistake.
I'd just bet the turn small for value then jam the rest in on the river. The board is very dry, Ax is never folding at any stage regardles of what you do, and with a small bet/bet plan that offers awesome odds, you can also get a few more stacks from stuff like JJ-KK that's too retarded to fold the flop.
Your ranges look pretty good for a first attempt. When BB leads this tiny on the flop though I wouldn't take anything out of his range yet, this moron can certainly still have stuff like KQ or AA if he has it preflop.
Here's your equity vs turn ranges if you shove, and some proof of how bad c/f would be:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 49.327% 49.33% 00.00% 9157 0.00 { 2c2h }
Hand 1: 22.770% 20.09% 02.68% 3729 498.00 { AA, 88, AJs+, AJo+ }
Hand 2: 27.903% 25.22% 02.68% 4682 498.00 { AA, 88, AJs+, A8s, A2s, AJo+ }
Note UTG here has hands like A2s A8s etc since he will limp/call with these occassionally if we're being pescimistic where as BB will hardly ever 3 bet them so doesn't have them.
BB probably also has stuff like JJ-KK fairly often since he's a huge whale and hates to fold large pocket pairs even with an ace on board. He certainly still has these hands on the turn a decent % of the time. I haven't included them just to demonstrate that even if he never has them, it's still an easy bet for value.
If you do insist on checking the turn, you still can't fold to a bet because they'll very frequently bet or jam with Ax. As awesome as it would be to be able to say "right boats always bet the turn and Ax always checks," it just isn't true and there'll still be way more AK AQ etc than boats in their turn betting ranges than better hands. It's good that you're trying to take actions which clarify your opponents ranges here, this is a skill that can be useful when applicable. With experiecne you'll get a feel for which assumptions you can make and which you can't.
So yeah please please don't c/f here or I'll eat my own eyes.
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