To be honest, I have no idea about your math. I was never any good with math. I think we're gonna have to wait for koolmoe to help us with this one.

But to address another issue. Playing Axs and chasing a flush, you will always have tainted outs, unless you know what the other guy is holding. If the board pairs one of the non suited cards, it may complete your flush, and someone elses full house.