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Q
For this exercise I will ignore that 9s and 7h are dead to simplify the process.
I'll give this a try. I'm going to go out on a limb and make some pretty critical statements, but I think you'll read them in the spirit it's intended.
First off I'll be perfectly clear and state that range practice is to me clearly the biggest thing I could/should do to improve my game - and I'm not doing it. Also don't have much time to play though.
Before diving into the range practice proper I'd like to dwell a bit on the players in the hand and some other things. BB is an interesting profile in that he continues to steals 23% of the time and has a vpip of 22%. This almost suggests someone who is not positionally aware - or perhaps more accurately someone who might not be playing a positionally aware range, but who might still play his range in a positionally aware way! It's possible of course that he plays 10% UTG and 35% on the BTN and that his BB range happens to be the same as his average vpip. Anyway, he plays 23% of hands - which 23%? I can go with premiums and pp's, but I'm not sold on having BW-J and BW-T so high on the relative hand strength order.
I'll divert here and discuss briefly a few things from BobboFitos DVD set that I got from PokerStars not too long ago. When I saw his tiering of starting hands I similarly did not fully agree/support and I present a rough approximation of his as a counterargument to yours. His T1 is pocket pairs, AK and Axs - T2 is suited connectors to 65s and suited gappers down to 75s and AQ. T3 is the rest of broadways (suited or no), the lower suited connectors/one gappers, offsuit connectors and Axo. The principle behind is Axs in T1 and all of T2 over T3 is hands with big hand potential (straights/flushes) being more playable than hands with high card value/showdown equity/hot and cold equity.
This aside meant to get you thinking - should you always consider your chunks in the order listed here?
Ok, back to the hand in question, I need to pinpoint 23% that my BB is playing against SB. SB is likely on a steal (two steals per proper hand) and BB probably knows this. 23% is about 310 hand combinations. I'll pick hands with big hand potential first. All pocket pairs (78), All suited aces (48), AK (12), AQ (12), KQs-65s (32), KJs-75s (28), KTs-J8s (12), AJo/ATo/KQo/KJo/KTo/QJo/QTo/JTo (96) - 318 hand combinations.
We know the BB doesn't widen his hand range in blind defense, but he does raise quite vigorously in blind defense. Almost half the time. The question again is, which hands does he choose to 3bet rather than call? If he was following randomization by hand equity, ABCD theorem or the golden ratio (same thing btw) he'd probably be raising AA-QQ (18), AK(16), T9s-65s (20), T8s-75s (16), Q9s-J8s (8), KJo (12), KTo (12), QJo (12), QTo (12), JTo (12), for 138 hand combos.
I'm not sure what other logical way someone can have of putting together a 3betting range. I guess we could put JJ/TT and AQ in there some of the time as value with less bluffing hands, but I don't think it's really that far off.
This makes my flat calling range for BB:
JJ-22 (60), AQs-A2s (44), AQo-ATo (36), KQs-JTs (12), KJs-J9s (12), KQo (12), KTs (4) - 180 hand combinations
The board is scary for any hand and calling a pot sized bet seems like a really odd choice. You almost have to have both equity and outs to call. I could see even weak top pairs folding here (like A7s). I don't see TT-22 calling. While BB's fold to cbet is 51%, I'd put the chance of folding to a cbet on exactly this flop maybe a bit higher than the norm. It's a dangerous flop where BB will only continue with a hand. I don't expect much light floating on this flop.
Potential raising hands: (nuts) QTs, JJ, QhJh, JhTh (bluffs) TT
This happens to be 15 hand combinations which isn't too far removed from 11%. Needs be said that if either of these hands decided to slowplay by calling the flop they would raise the turn for sure, so I'm just counting them out at this time.
My flat calling range:
AQ-AT, KQ, KJs, KTs, QJs, JTs
Turn is unlikely to improve anyone directly but it does put out another flush draw. From this point basically any diamond, any heart, any queen, any T and any card that pairs the board is scary as hell. SB is threatening another bet on the river and BB can only call if he is showdown bound. On the flop I included a lot of hands that had pair plus straight draw, but on the turn most of those hands have to fold. I think we're pretty much down to AQ-AT, KJs.
River pairs the A and completes the flush. AJ would raise, KJs would fold - I can see AQ and AT.
Right now I have trouble putting SB on anything other than KJ, but I haven't really thought through SBs situation.
Edit note: Forgot a lot of heart flush draws in my flop range. I'm guessing they're folding the turn also though.
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