Project Bankroll Builder

Hello,

I am a frustrated and losing poker player. I have $162.80 left on PokerStars out of thousands that I have deposited over the years. I have had little to no success at any kind of poker. I have decided to use the 180's (20 table tournaments) on Stars as my last ditch effort to be a successful player. I am never depositing money again, so I hope this works out.

I have chosen to share my results, good or bad, with you all. So, wish me luck....

p.s. I do have an account on Full Tilt as well. I am currently playing in the nightly Daily Double (both A and B). Aside from that, I have $15.21 on Full Tilt. Seems like a rather insignificant sum, but I wanted full disclosure. I may be getting $50-$60 in rakeback on Full Tilt in a week or two, also.

MAY 03:

(1) $4.40 played w/ no win.

Ending Bankroll: $158.40

just busted out of the Full Tilt Daily Double B tourney. we got it all in preflop with KK for me and AKs for him. he hit and A on the flop. I was a large favorite to win and didn't.

i lost the $4.40 like this. I was on the button with AQ ... I raised an EP limper to 4x... he calls and flop is AT4... he checks to me and i bet 2/3 pot... he calls... turn is a Q... GUESS WHAT HE HAS??? QQ!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! He hit a one outer on me.

I am a bachelor's degree in mathematics. I understand variance, statistics, probability, expectation, etc... but ...
I RUN BAD!! I win 65/35 matchups LESS THAN 50% of the time.. I win 80/20 matchups LESS THAN 65% of the time.. and on and on...

this has been happening for YEARS.

Mod plz move to bad beat forum

{from MTT tactics}

please read the stickies. read the BR thread. you're gonna go busto if you don't listen.

Started today with $158.40 on PokerStars. Decided to try the $3.40 SNGs.

(69) $3.40 SNGs played =$234.60

(11) firsts
(2) seconds
(5) thirds

Profit = - $21.60
ROI = - 9.2%
ITM = 26.1%

(5) $4.40 - 180's played = $22.00

(1) 15th (lost AJ to QJ).. for $8.64

Profit = - $13.36
ROI = - 60.7%
ITM = 20.0%

Bankroll = $123.44

p.s. there was one tournament that I payed for, but it never opened up. i have emailed PokerStars support in order to get my money back. i will inform you of the outcome when i get word.

p.s.s. after a few back and forth emails this morning, PokerStars has recredited the missing $3.40 to my account. All is well there.

Let's start with the positives.....looks like u might have a pretty good heads-up game, but you need to shoot for more than a 25% ITM. That said, how are you busting out? Can you describe some general trends, specific HHs, something.........bad beat stories can only account for so much of it, and in a MTT (which those 180's essentially are), you may BUST OUT on a "bad beat", but how did you get to the point where you were throwing it all in the middle? What other -EV hands came before hand.

Example: Played the Absolute 2K Guarantee last night, its a rebuy, so that's like free money, and 90 mins in I was rolled up to about 31K. Now, through several small/medium poor decisions, that 31K dropped to about 12, putting me almost in push or fold mode. Anyways, took me about 45 more minutes to run it up to a peak of 52K, including turning a low flush against villian's KK, and I wound up busting out in the money (but not much $$) with JJ. It was a "suckout", I had the better hand, but imagine if I hadn't gone through that up & down cycle earlier.......chances are, I wouldn't have had my life on the line with JJ. Anyways, the point is, evaluate the whole picture to determine why you're actually out, READ THE STICKIES ON BR MGMT, and you'll be much happier.

Thank you for starting out positive with me. Actually, I have gotten lucky heads up today. Normally, my stats are about 40% ITM with about 1/2 as many wins as thirds. So, this is a bit of an anomaly.

I usually bust out 4th when I go all in with KK and the big stack calls with 88 and hits an eight. That is my normal game plan. Anyway, I will try to evaluate the entire game rather than focusing only on the last hands. But, realistically, if I win at the expected rate those hands... then I am a winning player, regardless of how bad or good I played up to that point. Do you get what I mean?

Anyway, how do you all get those banners at the end of your posts that say your goals and the % to accomplishment that you are?

Thanks.

btw... I just cancelled my subscriptions to cardrunners, pokerxfactor and sngicons... as well as cancelled my epassporte account (tried to cancel mywebatm but couldn't figure out how). I cannot afford to spend another dime on poker. The roll I have now is what I have.. .win or lose.

"I usually bust out 4th when I go all in with KK and the big stack calls with 88 and hits an eight. That is my normal game plan."

OK, this is a lesson I reteach myself ALL the time. Overpairs are ALWAYS 81-19 favorites, so getting them against these unders like 88 is +EV. The key to +EV is the "E"!!!!!! I'm EXPECTED to win with KK over 88, not GUARANTEED. If +GV were a stat, we'd all have a list of unbeatable hands, & we'd only play those, we'd never get sucked out on, and life would be full of candy canes & circus peanuts or whatever you like.

But the above paragraph brings me to what I really have to preach to myself - learn to embrace the occasional suckout, b/c if they never happened, I WOULD NEVER SUCK OUT!!!!! And let's face it - sometimes I have to suckout to win, we all do. A few nights ago I got AA against QQ three times in about an hour, with a Q dropping on the river all 3 times. Yeah, that was against normal odds and numbers, etc.......but let's face it, according to sheer probability, I'm due to win the next 12 occurences of that hand, and even if I don't, it's still the right move to get in with the best. It's ALWAYS the right move to get in with the best, so stick with KK on the cash bubble & take your chances. Cheers!!

Anyway, how do you all get those banners at the end of your posts that say your goals and the % to accomplishment that you are?

operations.talkingapes.com

Did the KK v 88 thing happen more than once out of every 5 times? Because that's how often it actually should happen. We just have a tendency as players to assume that we're always going to be recipients of the other 4 times, and never the one where the 8 comes.

I understand that we can "Expect" KK to beat 88 four out of every five times. My problem is that over the long run (probably 1000+ runs) my win rate with pair over pair situations like this is about 60%. That is a HUGE difference. That is me losing over 200 times more than would be expected over a 1000+ sample size. Calculate the probability of this happening and you quickly see that it is unreasonable. There is not a logical explanation for what I'm talking about.

Also, i went to talkingapes.com and created a banner. But now, how do I get it to show up on my posts here?

Thanks.

Originally Posted by unsub#1

There is not a logical explanation for what I'm talking about.

I can think of one. You're not being truthful.

I'm not trying to call you out when you're feeling bad about what's happening, but the truth is it's not possible to win only 60% of them over a large sample size. You say "probably 1000+ runs" "about 60%"...you're guessing.

If you want to actually bring some stats into the picture, then I recommend you do so and accuse the poker site of being rigged against you. But since you can't produce them, I think you should accept the fact that you are winning 81% of your pair over pair situations and move on to the next issue.

Do you have pokertracker of pokeroffice to show these statistics for your overpair vs underpair? And is this just over 1000 hands, or 1000 hands where it was an overpair/underpair situation? 20% less than expected even over 1000 hands seems like extremely high variance, although im sure its possible.

For the operation, put in your operations img link in your signature. Make sure to enclose it in img tags.

I can't believe it. I just played in three $4.40 180's. I just lost one. In another I lost with QQ in a three way all in against AK and AT... on a Q42 flop!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Turn was J... river was T!!!!!!!!!

In the other one.. i had AA vs. TT.. flop was all under cards and all clubs. I had the A of clubs. Turn was a Ten... of course! And no Ace or club on the river. It is unreal. edit: i just looked at the hand history again.. and guess what? villians two hole tens.. neither was a club. That means that he had only one out in the deck!!!!!!!! I truly think that someone or something is against me. I lose way more than is statistically possible. Btw, it is not just like this with poker. I run like this in all facets of life too. I won't bore you with the endless bad beat stories I have from life though.

I understand that you think that I am not being truthful with my story. To be honest, if I had heard this same story a year ago, I wouldn't believe the guy either. There is nothing I can do about it though.

Also, I tried to link my banner and it didn't work. What are "img" things?

Try taking a week off from poker, then play and see how it goes.

For your signature you need to put [img] on the left side of it and [/img] on the other.

Redman's 3 part advice for you:

1) Take a few days off......your roll is gonna get killed if you play & think like this.

2) Watch Rounders - pay attention to McD's words RIGHT BEFORE he goes back to the first home game they play in.

3) Stop lying about how often you lose & treating my well thought out replies as though they were/are theoretical nonsense.

LOL Redman.

I like advice number three. Unfortunately, I am not lying. I wish I was.

Originally Posted by unsub#1

I won't bore you with the endless bad beat stories I have from life though.

Just the poker ones?

Actually, I'm sure I'd find the real-life ones more interesting. For what it's worth, I feel about the same way. In fact I just finished a "bad beat" with Wachovia, whom I will never bank with again. Flushed $104.10, which is probably making out like a bandit. I despise banks.

Started today with $123.44 on PokerStars.

(1) $3.30 MTT - finished 16th out of 665 for $14.37
had a very big stack knocked down on 4, nearly consecutive, hands:
1. JJ lost to QT all in
2. JJ lost to A4 all in
3. TT lost to KQ
4. AJ lost to 77

then, when I was shorty.. AK lost to AJ all in.

Profit = $11.07

(2) $4.40 - 180's played = $8.80

KK lost to AK all in in the first one.
Currently at the final table in the second one. Well, I ended up finishing 2nd for $144.00. This is AWESOME because from the time we were at the FT bubble and on, I was the short stack. I never chipped up or won a pot, its just that the big stacks kept fighting each other. I came out the winner on a card-dead final table for me. When we got to heads up, it was 225K for him and about 25K for me (aboutish).

Profit = $135.20

Bankroll = $269.71

Man, I can appreciate running cold & all, but can you give some other info on the hands you're describing?? I understand that in all cases you had a "better" hand preflop, but seeing as I don't know what the board looked like, relative stack sizes, anything like that, I'm not sure how I could be of assistance.

"AK is always made of the same two ranks, but I can rarely play it the same way twice. CONTEXT IS KING!!!!!!"
- Phil Gordon

More questions to always be asking:

1) How often am I limping in or COLD CALLING A RAISE w/ a marginal hand for no particular reason?

2) Do I understand that every poker tournament presents me with the same competing goals of survival & chip accumulation? Do I play accordingly?

3) Do I understand gap theory and it's role in the way I treat calling someone's AI/ big raise?

If not, do some homework before losing what's left.

"3. TT lost to KQ
4. AJ lost to 77 "

These are both coinflips......now go flip a quarter 100 times, count the # of times it comes up heads one time & tails the next......as long as that scenario is fathomable, those hands can't even be considered bad beats.

Congrats on 2nd place!!!!

Thank you. I was very pleased with 2nd. Usually when you get heads up and end up losing there is a bit of a let down. Not this time. It was all good.

I realize that the two hands you mentioned were coinflips and not bad beats. I just put them up there because they cost me good chunks of chips at a crucial stage in the tournament.

Incidentally, both hands had scary flops for both me and my opponent. I was the preflop aggressor on both and then fired out a continuation bet on both. Both times, the caller called my c-bet. Then we check-checked the turn. I am convinced that if I had had the nerve to fire another barrell on the turn, I could have taken BOTH of these pots down. But like I said, they were scary flops for me too. For example... i open raise MP with TT... LP calls w/ KQ. Flop was AQx.... I c-bet the flop for about 2/3 pot and he calls. Then we check-check the turn and the river. You think I should have fired another bullett? I think he woulda folded, but is it really a +EV play? I mean, an AQ flop is scary to pocket tens. That hits a lot of hands that might cold call a preflop raise. Then the flop call tells me I'm beat. What do you think? Good line.. or played differently?

Esp. w/ pocket 10's I'd probably have a tough time firing bullet #3, unless I was SURE he was just looking to fold. Can't count the # of times I've had JJ on an AKx board and realistically, if my c-bet gets called, I've gotta figure that not only are jacks no good, but if I'm in a multi-way pot, I could be all kinds of dead.....there are always better spots for your money.

get PokerTracker and start posting these hands. I guarenteee you if you watched all the pokerXfactor and cardrunners tourney Videos we wouldn't be having these conversations. You seem to not understand the things people are telling you, not to mention doing what they advise. Three times they have mentioned BR management, several have told you your wrong in the math that you are telling us and have no HH's to back up anything. You need to stop playing poker on emotion and start becoming a focused and learning player.

unsub:

if you are concrete on building a bankroll, why are you playing only MTT? Most will agree that if you only play MTT you need a bankroll of at least 100 buy-ins to avoid the terrible runs of non-cashing.

Why dont you grind out some SNG's with some smaller MTT s on the side.

Trainer:

I have watched almost all of the pokerxfactor videos. I actually watched Rizen's Stars Million win two days ago.. ALL OF IT!!! (it is very long). And I watched brsavage's UB chop yesterday. And I watched BelowAbove's 300 Live 2nd place finish today. I love these videos and I hope to watch more and more before my subscription runs out in a few days.

Trips:

The reason I have been playing mostly MTTs is because that is where I have had success. I am a losing SNG player. I am a losing cash game player. But I have a pretty decent ROI in MTTs. For example, I have an ROI over 300% in the $4.40's over the past couple of months. I played in one Deep Stack tourney for $22 and finished 2nd for $917. I played a PLOmaha MTT for $8.80 on Easter and won it for $280ish. I have played in two Sunday Millions in the past 6 weeks and cashed both times.. once for about $525 and once for about $980.

Unfortunately, I lost all my winnings by trying to grind out a "steady" income at the SNGs and cash tables. So, not knowing what else to do, I have worked my way back to MTTs because of the success I've had there. Do you think that is a bad idea? I am playing in small buy-ins too, for bankroll's sake. Mostly $3, $4, and $5 tournaments. I know this is only 25-50x.

Originally Posted by unsub#1

So, not knowing what else to do, I have worked my way back to MTTs because of the success I've had there. Do you think that is a bad idea?

I think it's a good idea, but it conflicts with your ultimatum to never put another ten cents into poker. What if you run out your 270 bucks without cashing? It doesn't mean you're unprofitable, espescially if you're playing $10 tourneys very often.

"The reason I have been playing mostly MTTs is because that is where I have had success. I am a losing SNG player. I am a losing cash game player. But I have a pretty decent ROI in MTTs. For example, I have an ROI over 300% in the $4.40's over the past couple of months. I played in one Deep Stack tourney for $22 and finished 2nd for $917. I played a PLOmaha MTT for $8.80 on Easter and won it for $280ish. I have played in two Sunday Millions in the past 6 weeks and cashed both times.. once for about $525 and once for about $980. "

300% ROI = Positive variance, and it runs out quickly.

917+280+525+980 = $2702

What I'm hearing is that over the past 3 months or so you have lost about 90-93% of your winnings. That is not variance, that is horrible BR mgmt...........I'm officially done trying to be a voice of reason in this thread.

"My problem is that over the long run (probably 1000+ runs) my win rate with pair over pair situations like this is about 60%."

I believe this sentence to be an unfounded lie.

Thank you Redman for you contributions. I respect your decision to discontinue. I also respect your opinions about the veracity of my statements. Thank you for your input on that. It seems as though you are angry about something? Oh well, I wish you the best.

Results for today:

MTTs

(1) $3.30 buy-in - 16th out of 665 for $14.37
(2) $5.50 buy-in - DNP in first; 58th out of 1427 in second for $17.13
(7) $4.40 buy-in - one 2nd for $144.00

MTT NET: + $130.40

SNGs

(13) $3.40 turbos played = $44.20

(4) First
(2) Second
(0) Third

SNG NET: + $33.80

TOTALS: + $164.20

BANKROLL: $287.64

May 5th 3:57 p.m. Results for today:

MTTs

(1) $3.30 buy-in - 16th out of 665 for $14.37
(1) $5.50 buy-in - DNP
(5) $4.40 buy-in - one 2nd for $144.00

MTT NET: + $127.57

SNGs

(7) $3.40 turbos played = $23.80

(2) First
(1) Second
(0) Third

SNG NET: + $15.20

TOTALS: + $142.77

BANKROLL: $266.21

May 5th 6:47 a.m.Started today with $123.44 on PokerStars.

(1) $3.30 MTT - finished 16th out of 665 for $14.37
had a very big stack knocked down on 4, nearly consecutive, hands:
1. JJ lost to QT all in
2. JJ lost to A4 all in
3. TT lost to KQ
4. AJ lost to 77

then, when I was shorty.. AK lost to AJ all in.

Profit = $11.07

(2) $4.40 - 180's played = $8.80

KK lost to AK all in in the first one.
Currently at the final table in the second one. Well, I ended up finishing 2nd for $144.00. This is AWESOME because from the time we were at the FT bubble and on, I was the short stack. I never chipped up or won a pot, its just that the big stacks kept fighting each other. I came out the winner on a card-dead final table for me. When we got to heads up, it was 225K for him and about 25K for me (aboutish).

Profit = $135.20

Bankroll = $269.71

There is something wrong with your math.

Trainer...

I just rechecked it. Couldn't find the error. Can you point it out for me? I do want my record keeping to be accurate.

Please keep in mind that the post you copied at the top of your page is the current and up-to-date posting for the day's results. I go in and edit it as the day goes on and I play more.

It seems to add up to me.

This morning you posted your BR to be $269.71 and this afternoon you posted a session that was +$142.77 for a BR of $266.21

If you ran +$142.77 in the second session you posted your BR should be $412.48 AMIRITE??

If your making multiple posts of your sessions then stop. Your being to results oriented. Just post at the end of the day. Nobody needs an up to date game by game posting of your efforts. Get a notepad and write it down.

You are right. I did make multiple posts with results. The second post was not supposed to be IN ADDITION TO the first... it was just an update on the first. I agree with you and will not be making multiple posts.... just one per day.

I may update that one post throughout the day but I will not create multiple posts. Thanks again.

Starting today with $287.64 on PokerStars.

MTTs

(1) $5.50 buy-in - donkey played myself out early
(8) $4.40 - 180's -
1. 16th place for $8.64 (came back from 70 chips early on)
2. 14th place for $8.64 (short stacked the entire way)
3. 14th place for $8.64 (nice to be ITM 3/7 but i need a final table!)

MTT Profit = - $14.78

BANKROLL = $272.86

I'm done for today. Disappointing day. Last tourney I flopped a full house first hand but never got paid. Then my KK lost vs. AQ and AJ when one of the remaining two A's hit. This is the MTT grind though. You can go days without a big score... then... BAM! What I like about the 180's is that they are so soft that even when running bad, you can generally make the money a good percentage of the time to keep winning buy-ins at least. For anyone familiar with PXF, my average PUFF was in the teens today. That includes the tourney that I got down to 70 chips on hand #5 and ended up placing in the money. My PUFF that tournament was 8! And it was only 8 cause I got AKs on my last hand (QQ busted me). Before that premium hand, my PUFF was 6!!!! Oh well, like I said, the 180's are good because you can keep afloat even when getting no cards. See you all tomorrow.

Post hand histories.

That is all.

Starting today with $272.86 on PokerStars. Will be playing more $4.40 - 180's today. I will also be playing in the May subscriber tournaments hosted by PokerXFactor.

Thumbs, by saying "That is all", did you mean that is all you had to say? or did you mean that hand histories is all you want me to be posting?

MTTs

(5) $4.40 - 180's - no cashes today. came close when QQ lost to JJ on the bubble in one. card dead again otherwise.

(2) $5.50 MTTs (both for PXF subs)

1. Finished 3rd out of 139 in the 1pm for $82.70. TT lost to A4 AI pre.
2. Finished 94th out of 297 in the 9pm for NOTHING.

MTT Profit = + $49.70

SNGs

(10) $3.40 turbos played = $34.00

(3) First place finishes
(1) Second place finish
(0) Third place finishes

SNG Profit = + $20.00

Daily Profit = + $69.70

Bankroll = $342.56

It's all I had to say. If you take poker seriously and want to improve your game it's gonna help tremendously.

2Thumbs OTM. This thread is useless otherwise - you're actually causing your own game potential harm by being too results-oriented in the short term, and you're not giving us any content that we can respond to. But if you post hand histories, key moments, tricky decisions, hey, even the occasional wtf bad beat, then we can contribute and the thread suddenly becomes much more interesting for you and for us.

(p.s. I don't know my BR to the nearest $1000 so it's funny seeing you count the pennies Round up/down, it'll make things easier to follow)

took the advice and decided to create a blog.

anyone who wants to follow my results can do so at:

unsub1.blogspot.com

this thread will now end. thank you all.

Originally Posted by unsub#1

took the advice and decided to create a blog.



unsub1.blogspot.com

oh my.