Quote Originally Posted by spoonitnow
Suppose we call his bet, and the turn makes the board Qs 7c 3d 8s and we remember that we hold 6s 5s. The turn pot is 22bb or so after the rake, and our opponent checks. Now his range has changed again (ranges change after every action) so we can narrow it down some more. This Villain probably wouldn't check this turn with any top pair hand or better so that makes anything in {QQ+, AQ+, KQ, 77, 33} much less likely. He also would probably bet at least some of the time with AK and AJ if he turned the nut flush draw, so we can note that AsKs and AsJs are unlikely as well for his turn checking range. Therefore, his likely range now is something like {AJ, AK, JJ} not including AsKs/AsJs.
I have a question regarding villains actions - specifically checking the turn. You state that villain "probably wouldn't check this turn with any top pair hand or better so that makes anything in {QQ+, AQ+, KQ, 77, 33} much less likely". At 2NL I've seen a fair few (very) tagg players betting standard amounts preflop, c-betting the flop and then choosing to C/R the turn or river with TPTK or even sets, presumably because they recognise it as an action to convey a powerful hand and to potentially squeeze more money out of the other players.

When narrowing our range after his check on the turn (in your example), can we take such possibilities into account and are there any specific reads or stats that would indicate a villain is predisposed to doing this?