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Originally Posted by Donkafelts
My problem with that is say turn bricks a 4 and we shove i think we are very rarely getting looked up by worse, like maby AJ, if he's bad enough to flat that pre (not sure of the likelyhood of that as he's a nit).
i'd really really slow down with the nit label; i'd call the guy an unknown (in fact after participating in this pot, his vpip is technically now up to 21, and who knows what it'll do over the next 50 much less 200 hands). the only thing we can gather from his 17/11 over 18 hands is that he's very unlikely to be a complete station fish.
so, as an unknown, kinda taggy looking 10nl villain, i wouldn't be giving him so much credit for his flatting a 3b range IP. if you bet flop and shove on a blank 4 turn, i wouldn't at all be surprised to see JTs, KJ, TT and even QJ. i wouldn't put all of these as solidly 100% in his range, but i would consider each individual one AT LEAST as likely as hands like JJ, KK, AA because of hand combinations and the fact that he didn't 4b preflop and so forth.
and this is without mentioning all of his best draws, which put him in a much tougher spot if we set up for a turn shove. shoving the turn gives an unknown 10nl opponent (who we can always assume has like an 80% chance of sucking) the opportunity to make a mistake by calling, or even if they are able to make the "correct" fold, we've still protected our hand, as opposed to giving them a free card.
SUMMARY: just 'cause villain is running tight-ish looking stats over 18 hands, there's still a very very good chance that he's a tagg fish and an damn near certainty that he isn't anywhere very near perfect. so we want to maximize the probability of making a mistake. when we have a good hand on a dangerous board with low spr OOP, we generally do this by betting and putting him in a tough decision for stacks. i guarantee that not only will unknowns at 10nl very often make "not so good" plays when you put the heat on, they will even ocassionally make "retarded" plays.
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