question on how often my opponent needs to fold to make a semi bluff +ev

Ok it seems i have caused some confusion or was perhaps unclear as to what i wanted. Me and V start with 100xbb. Cut to the turn pot has 10XBB. i bet 7.5. Now if V calls and i miss i lose 7.5. this will happen 81 percent of the time as i have a 19 percent chance of making my flush. As i said in an earlier post V will call a shove 20% of the time. So i lose 7.5 81% and gain 100 3.8% of the time. Or is it 90? I know money in the pot isn't ours but u don't u still have to count it as potential winnings? In this scenario we have a 3.8% chance of scooping his entire stack and a 81 percent chance of losing the 7.5 i put in on the turn.

so if he never folds i lose on average 2.275. (100*0.038)-(7.5*.81)=-2.275. I simply want to know the minimum amount V needs to fold for me to make up the difference. so i need to win exactly 2.275 on my turn bluffs to make up the difference.

Originally Posted by grumpy64

Ok it seems i have caused some confusion or was perhaps unclear as to what i wanted. Me and V start with 100xbb. Cut to the turn pot has 10XBB. i bet 7.5. Now if V calls and i miss i lose 7.5. this will happen 81 percent of the time as i have a 19 percent chance of making my flush. As i said in an earlier post V will call a shove 20% of the time. So i lose 7.5 81% and gain 100 3.8% of the time. Or is it 90? I know money in the pot isn't ours but u don't u still have to count it as potential winnings? In this scenario we have a 3.8% chance of scooping his entire stack and a 81 percent chance of losing the 7.5 i put in on the turn.

so if he never folds i lose on average 2.275. (100*0.038)-(7.5*.81)=-2.275. I simply want to know the minimum amount V needs to fold for me to make up the difference. so i need to win exactly 2.275 on my turn bluffs to make up the difference.

I'm glad to help. Sorry if I've added any unnecessary confusion.

PLEASE do not start introducing unneeded x's in your posts. It's not 100xbb; it's 100 bb. Not 10Xbb, just 10 bb. We're using the x as a variable and it doesn't count as a multiplication sign in this thread. I'm happy to use another letter if you are attached to using x to mean multiply.

Yes, you count the pot as potential winnings, but the final value of those winnings is NOT 100bb.

You need to know the ESS at the time you begin your analysis. Just knowing the starting stacks and the value of the pot isn't enough due to blinds and antes and any other players that may have VPIP/fold pre-flop. You need to know the state of the game at the point of analysis.

@underline: Your %ages don't add up to 100%, which should be a clue that you haven't accounted for all possible outcomes, or at least that your %ages are incorrect.