Watch out everyone it's the Variance police. I'm guessing you don't get out much.
If you play an infinite number of hands then variance will be equal to zero and therefore our winrate is therefore our 'true winrate' or 'skill level' if you like.
In the following video, over an infinite sample size the 'normal distribution' curve will be effectively an infinitely thin line.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5416oRqykJw
So all we need to realise is that the more hands we play the more likely our winrate reflects our skill level.
So if we play 250K hands and our winrate is 5BBs/100 then it is likely that our skill level is closer to this than if we have a 5BBs/100 winrate over 50K hands.
Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey
You just described how it is measured.
Ok, maybe I should have said it cannot be measured exactly
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