Quickly calculating outs and %

When i started to play NLHE, my friend told me that a very fast and pretty accurate way to calculate my % of hitting a hand on the next card was to calculate my # of outs, multiply it by two, and then add one.

When i read a lot of articles for beginners, I don't see it done this way. Whenever I watch the TV shows where they show the percentages, the way I learned it is actually pretty accurate

Should i stick with this method? It's good for me because I can calculate a % real quick, but perhaps I am missing a faster or more accurate way of doing it

i dont know what guides youre talking about but afaik most people do it your way. Ive never bothered adding a 1 though because 1% either way isnt going to make a difference to my decision.

Do it the quick way for now, but go over hands in pokerstove when you're not sure. Eventually you'll get the hang of it. I've taught a few live players how to play and to teach them outs I grab a deck of cards and grab hands at random and ask them what the percentage of each hand is. Then we try it with different flops and such. Within half an hour you'll get the hang of just knowing what kind of % you have... then you get into you vs. an entire range... then you get into your range vs. opp's range, etc.

Originally Posted by AFchung

When i started to play NLHE, my friend told me that a very fast and pretty accurate way to calculate my % of hitting a hand on the next card was to calculate my # of outs, multiply it by two, and then add one.

When i read a lot of articles for beginners, I don't see it done this way. Whenever I watch the TV shows where they show the percentages, the way I learned it is actually pretty accurate

Should i stick with this method? It's good for me because I can calculate a % real quick, but perhaps I am missing a faster or more accurate way of doing it

You have 8 outs when it's your turn to bet on the flop, but know villain has you beat unless you hit one of those 8 cards.

Estimate a 16% chance of improving on the turn (outs x 2)
Estimate a 32% chance of improving by the river (outs x 4)

Phil Gordon call this the "Rule of 2 and 4." It is reasonably accurate when you have 10 outs or less, slightly underestimating your likelihood of hitting your hand. This underestimate is a good thing - it keeps you on the conservative side when calculating pot odds. Adding the one turns the underestimate into an overestimate. I think it's a bad idea.

Here is a quick list to demonstrate estimates vs. actual percentage chances of hitting your hand by the river with X outs on the flop:



You can see that, for less than 6 outs, we underestimate slightly with the Rule of 2 and 4. For 6 and 7 outs, we're almost exactly right. For 8 outs or more, we are overestimating our chances. But since big draws of 10+ outs have odds for almost any call/shove, we don't worry too much about precision here. If precision is lacking for a small number of outs, it's on the conservative side, so we actually WILL have correct pot odds for our calls when we make them.

Bottom line: use Rule of 2 and 4 - it's very accurate. Don't add the 1.

I just reread op, and realized he's talking about the "hit on next card" scenario. Here's another chart for outs on flop vs. chance of hitting on turn:



Again, for 6 outs or less, it's pretty accurate. You can start adding the "+1" when you get to 8 outs, but at this point you have pot odds to call a PSB anyway.

It's not worth it. Use the Rule of 2 and 4 for all three situations:

1. Flop outs, chance of hitting hand by river (Rule of 4)
2. Flop outs, chance of hitting hand on turn (Rule of 2)
3. Turn outs, chance of hitting hand on river (Rule of 2)