Raisers stack or effective stack?

When calculating odds for set hunting, do you use the Original raisers stack, (assuming you have that much or more.) or do you only use the effective stack?

Example:
UTG-9.00$
MP1-2.00
Hero(BTN)-11.50

Hero Holds 99

UTG Raises .15$ to .20$
MP1 calls .20$
Hero: ???

I use MP1's stack right? and that only give's me 10:1.(I DON'T go by the 10:1 rule BTW.) As a second question, what if it's two big stacks calling + 1 short stack. Do you make the call then?

This is difficult - MP1 is in the way. We'd like to play an UTG TAGG for set value. If MP1 is passive, we can get away with calling here. If he's aggressive, he's likely to kill our set value.

BTW, 99 is a decent hand here, at least at 10nl. So this depends a lot on villain reads. But yes, you're right, I would probably fold hands like 22 - 44 here. I'm more likely to 3bet w/ 99 than flat call (again, read dependent). But short stacks are bad for the set hunting business. It's even worse if the short stack is in the BB where TAGG UTG is likely to get squeezed on the flop.

Good question. I'll be interested to hear what others think.

I always lean towards the initial raiser... MP1 could be set hunting with a hand we have dominated.

There are situations though where you can consider the sizes of both stacks when you're in this situation. First of all, always consider the initial raisers. Secondly, you can take into consideration the second or third stacks when any of the following apply: calling stations, very shortstacked ie. they are already pot commited preflop and simply suck at push/fold strat preflop, or if they are extremely tight players who tend to slowplay in this spot with big hands.

Ok, I've run the situation several times in my head and here's what I came up with. If I 3bet, I don't much care what shortstack does. Here's why:
-UTG folds- I'm more than happy to stack of with Mr. Shortstack
-UTG 4bets- I don't care cuz I'm outta the hand.(no odds if UTG raised appropriately)
-UTG Calls- Short stack can call/fold/shove.
----call-fine, he's probably dead money anyway(since he's obviously a donk if he's short stack and calling in this situation.)
----fold-fine
----shove-fine I'm probably shoving right back since UTG has already said he doesn't have stack-off material.

So All I'm really worried about is UTG. So why am I 3betting my B range here? AGAIN:

UTG Folds-Great
UTG Calls-not so great, now I'm still set hunting, but at a higher price. and can still be drawn out on.
UTG Raises-I'm done.

So I'm probably just cold calling this situation and doing a regular old Set hunt. Besides I've got position so I should be in good shape if I hit.

NOW! Tell me where I'm wrong.(Not being sarcastic.)

The problem here is that the short-stack keeps UTG from stacking off as often - MP1 cuts down on your implied odds. UTG knows as soon as $2 go in that he has to have the best hand to win - there will be a showdown. So he's not floating or bluffing. Also if the short stack is agro, then this "gotta show it to win it" problem scares off the deep stack.

I like to the see the short stack with more like 10 to 1 effective stack before I'm comfortable attacking UTG with 22 - 44 in this situation.

99 is not just for set value. You very likely have the best hand here. If just one over comes on the flop, you're probably good.

Originally Posted by oskar

99 is not just for set value. You very likely have the best hand here. If just one over comes on the flop, you're probably good.

(This is all assuming MP shoves.)-
UTG maye easily have QQ,JJ, TT here as well.(think about the line, raise/call in UTG Pos.) So like Robb just said, we are going to see a showdown. That's why I shove against UTG after MP shoves. I don't want him in the hand. I want to go Heads up with MP with my 99 since I"ve probably go thte best hand. Unless I have UTG as a preflop station/donk. I'm making this move to get him out of the hand. He's not going to play for his whole stack vs my line.(Reraise into a UTG raiser/Shove.)

BTW, If MP doesn't shove, and we see a flop, I'm well aware that my nines are probably good. Which is generally why I'm flatting this bet preflop.

Originally Posted by Robb

The problem here is that the short-stack keeps UTG from stacking off as often - MP1 cuts down on your implied odds. UTG knows as soon as $2 go in that he has to have the best hand to win - there will be a showdown. So he's not floating or bluffing. Also if the short stack is agro, then this "gotta show it to win it" problem scares off the deep stack.

I like to the see the short stack with more like 10 to 1 effective stack before I'm comfortable attacking UTG with 22 - 44 in this situation.

I'm deff. not attacking UTG with 22-44. I'm flatting the bet. If the only person in the hand besides me was the shortstack, and he seemed to be pretty loose, then I'll stack off with 22-44 sometimes.

You said that MP keeps UTG from stacking off, but That's fine to me. 99 isn't stack off material with deepstacks. I don't think UTG is calling my shove be cause he only called my reraise. If he had been ready to stack off, we would have seen him reraise. If I stack off with the shortstack only, I don't care about my odds to hit a set. I'm looking purely at the fact that my hand is a favorite against his range.

In general, the aggressor's stack size is the more important consideration.

Thank you. I kinda took this thread elsewhere, but that was in fact my original question.