Quote Originally Posted by CrunchyNuts
So in this instance, the minimum raise would be 6bb (reraise of 2), which would give EV of:
12 * .89 - 94 * .11 = 10.68 - 10.34 = .34
I don't know where your math went wrong, but it did.

You're saying that the opponent must only call 2 x BB to win about 100 x BB - giving him a payout of 50 times what he has to call.

Using .11, he will hit his set about 1-in-9 times.

EV for opponent = .11 * 100 + .89 * -2 = 9.89

Obviously bad news if your opponent gains 9.89 x BB each time you play AA against them.

I believe the correct break-even point is this:

.11 * 100 + (1 - .11) * -X = 0

.11 * 100 = .89 * X

X = .11 * 100 / .89 = 12.36

This is the amount you must reraise on top of whatever he has already bet just to break even playing this way.

If you reraise to 20 x BB total (16 x BB on top), this ends up being:

EV for opponent = .11 * 100 + .89 * -16 = -3.24

This is assuming they always call those big reraises.