river decisions vs UTG nit

villain is nitty 10/9 over 120 100% fold to 3 bet ATS 13%
c bet flop 40% c bet turn 100% ldo


$0.10/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
PokerStars
9 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($25)
UTG+1 ($29.74)
MP1 ($9.65)
MP2 ($22.13)
MP3 ($16.15)
CO ($25)
kick (BTN) ($34.42)
SB ($29.94)
BB ($46.40)

Pre-Flop: ($0.35, 9 players) kick is BTN
UTG raises to $0.75, 5 folds, kick calls $0.75, 2 folds

Flop: ($1.85, 2 players)
UTG bets $1.25, kick calls $1.25

Turn: ($4.35, 2 players)
UTG bets $3, kick calls $3

River: ($10.35, 2 players)
[color=#cc0000][b]UTG .....

what would you call? would you bet if chked to?

1.most bets
2.definitely

If he bets I'm probably calling. If he checks I'm probably shoving.

call when he bets small
shove river when he checks and rep missed flush draws, get called by AA and moan seriously though, i'd bet river 2/3 when checked to

i'm interested in preflop and flop play
note that by river villain pretty much beats JJ most of the time

What about pre and flop interests you? Pre I want to play this hand, I don't think he will call a 3 bet with anything and I don't want it all in cos I'd be crushed, I don't feel that I even need to hit to take it away from him cos his c bet is super low. I also feel his pre flop range isn't as tight as you might imagine cos he doesn't apear to be very positionaly aware. Dunno what's interesting about the flop, I thought this was standard.

Originally Posted by kickass

What about pre and flop interests you? Pre I want to play this hand, I don't think he will call a 3 bet with anything and I don't want it all in cos I'd be crushed, I don't feel that I even need to hit to take it away from him cos his c bet is super low. I also feel his pre flop range isn't as tight as you might imagine cos he doesn't apear to be very positionaly aware. Dunno what's interesting about the flop, I thought this was standard.

pre is interesting to me because i 3b here maybe too much and wondered what others do. I need to go away and think some more on what is better if 1) he folds 99-QQ/AQs 100% here vs a 3b, and 2) if he calls them 100%

Flop is interesting cos i like raising cbets with all sorts of shit = i like to raise flops with made hands sometimes too. Calling is probably better in this spot cos he only really has one flush draw in his range, he isn't folding better, and dunno if he's really calling worse at all. Yep, i think you're right and call flop is better.

Originally Posted by daven

call when he bets small
shove river when he checks and rep missed flush draws, get called by AA and moan seriously though, i'd bet river 2/3 when checked to

i'm interested in preflop and flop play
note that by river villain pretty much beats JJ most of the time

It doesn't even matter if he's going to look us up with AA, he still c/fs his AK enough. If he bets small I probably ship it too. We also have KK+ in our range here(if we aren't 3bing AK I feel we should be ccing these hands too)

We are but he doesn't know that

Originally Posted by kickass

We are but he doesn't know that

What does this even mean?

edit: If someone can show me that jamming the river is bad when this guy checks I will happily use another option.

Meh I've been drinking
I am flatting AA and Kk at least some of the time vs utg open but this guy isn't gonna put it in our range cos he doesn't got a clue. I'll talk tomorrow when I can think.

Originally Posted by Icanhastreebet

edit: If someone can show me that jamming the river is bad when this guy checks I will happily use another option.

1 combo KK, unlikely to check river so remove from the rest of thinking about it

the possible/likely hands that check river.
3 combos AA, may check river, fold maybe 1/2 of the time vs a river overbet shove, never fold vs 2/3 psb
8 combos AK, check river, fold say 6/8 vs a river shove and about never vs 2/3 psb on river
6 combos QQ, check-fold vs shove, mostly check-fold vs 2/3 psb too (say call 1/6)
2 combos KQs, fold vs shove, call 1/2 vs 2/3 psb
AQdd fold to any bet

so 20 hand combinations
a) we beat 9 (QQ/KQ/AQdd), but we only get any value about 2/9 times when we bet 2/3psb, none when we shove
b) we split with 8, so get zero value from a bet when we bet 2/3psb but get the pot uncontested when we shove 6/8
c) we lose to 3 combos of AA when we bet 2/3psb, we win pot uncontested 1/2 of the time vs AA when we shove.

so time to plug some numbers in, net result if we bet the respective sizes

a) vs QQ/KQ/AQdd 90 + 14 vs 90
b) vs AK 0 vs 60
c) vs AA -21 vs (15 - 30) = -15.

so, betting 2/3 psb => $69, overbet shoving $135

= i am unable to show you that jamming is bad. I am unable to show you that betting pot is better. Cheers dude.

I kind of like the shoving line icanhasthreebet suggested

Ok, so he checks river to us, are we really expecting him to fold AK+ or call QQ- when we shove? I don't see he has much in his range that we beat. Pre he has close to JJ+ AQ+, turn we can remove AQ (except AQdd) JJ and QQ imo. We're crushed, that's how I see it. I'm folding turn unless someone can convince me he sometimes has worse or we can make him fold better often enough.

Originally Posted by OngBonga

Ok, so he checks river to us, are we really expecting him to fold AK+ or call QQ- when we shove? I don't see he has much in his range that we beat. Pre he has close to JJ+ AQ+, turn we can remove AQ (except AQdd) JJ and QQ imo. We're crushed, that's how I see it. I'm folding turn unless someone can convince me he sometimes has worse or we can make him fold better often enough.

yes, which part of my post above estimating fold/call frequencies vs a shove or a 2/3 psb do you disagree with?

Originally Posted by daven

yes, which part of my post above estimating fold/call frequencies vs a shove or a 2/3 psb do you disagree with?

I don't disagree all that much, except I don't expect to see KQ very often at all. I'll have another look tomorrow when I'm not tired, it's 6.30am and I've just finished a ten hour marathon session so there's a high chance I'm talking shit. At first glance I thought calling river or shoving when checked to is spew against this guy in this spot, but I'm probably wrong, I usually am.

i'll go out on a limb and say i don't like a shove. i seriously cannot see him ever folding anything which is better/chops (AA/AK) or calling worse (QQ-). i also doubt he has KQ in his range at any point in the hand.

i'd 3bet preflop.
i could see some benefits in raise/fold flop., although his range is strong, some folds from his AK could do us some profit as long as we dont always raise flop w/ AK.
as played, i am folding turn, cant see what worse beside QQ sometimes, not always, he bets. river is a fold when bet into and check back when he checks.

Im running 13/11 and my ATS is like 40% alot wider than this guys anyhow and I open at least KQs UTG prolly KQo as well(w/o reason not to). this guy is not stealing so his over all PFR from other positions must be higher than mine right?

he tanked and then bet 6 bucks on the ribber, I was sitting there trying to figure out the best option if chked to.
I gave him like all pairs and KQ+ AQ+ pre which makes for 9.3% of all hands. we have like 45% equity vs 77 TT KK AA AK KQ, I only need to be good 26% to make this call. but im splitting with all his AK so he really needs to have KQ in his betting range.

I don't understand why you think he c/cs AK v a shove when we have TT/77(if blinds are loose)/KK in our range...If he is ccing AK he's going to be lighting money on fire. You people also don't understand how rarely we need him to fold and I think you are overestimating the frequency he CHECKS and has AA which is only 3 combos in the first place.

edit: basically I think you are all a bunch of nits.

Originally Posted by Icanhastreebet

You people also don't understand how rarely we need him to fold

I think you probably hit the nail on the head here.

Extracting value is definitely something I need to focus on, especially river. I'm hardly a nit, I run at around 20/15 these days, sometimes more if the table is folding a lot either pre or on flop to cbet, but I'm a nit on the river because all too often I want the showdown. I really need to work on these spots.

Originally Posted by OngBonga

I don't disagree all that much, except I don't expect to see KQ very often at all. I'll have another look tomorrow when I'm not tired, it's 6.30am and I've just finished a ten hour marathon session so there's a high chance I'm talking shit. At first glance I thought calling river or shoving when checked to is spew against this guy in this spot, but I'm probably wrong, I usually am.

He almost certainly has KQs in his range. Pretty sure he would double w/ JJ/QQ as well due to the myriad (fun word) of draws out there. FDs, OESDs up the ass, etc. On river he'd probably snap a 1/2-2/3 bet off w/ JJ/QQ and KQ.

Probably fold all those to a shove except KQ might call rarely because everything whiffed. Still think shoving is fun though.

Giving him a checking range of AA(3combos), AK(6combos), 1combo KK, and AQ(3combos)
This is what I got.

-0.55 for a shove if he folds AK 1/2 the time and ALWAYS has AA,KK. Assuming
he is c/fing AQ


-1.21 for a shove if he fold AK 1/4 of the time and ALWAYS has AA,KK. Assuming
he is c/fing AQ

0.1 for a shove if he fold AK 3/4 of the time and ALWAYS has AA,KK. Assuming
he is c/fing AQ

0.76 for a shove if he fold AK 100% of the time and ALWAYS has AA,KK. Assuming
he is c/fing AQ

eV of a check v this range is 6.81

Now lets give him something realistic. AK(6combos), AA(1combo), AQ(3combos)<---Should probably be more

4.28 for a shove if he fold AK 1/4 of the time and ALWAYS has AA. Assuming
he is c/fing AQ

4.85 for a shove if he fold AK 1/2 of the time and ALWAYS has AA. Assuming
he is c/fing AQ

5.42 for a shove if he fold AK 3/4 of the time and ALWAYS has AA. Assuming
he is c/fing AQ

5.99 for a shove if he fold AK 100% of the time and ALWAYS has AA. Assuming
he is c/fing AQ

eV of a check v this range is 5.7

Range of 6combo of AK, 3combos of AQ

8.02 for a shove if he fold AK 1/4. Assuming he is c/fing AQ.

8.67 for a shove if he fold AK 1/2. Assuming he is c/fing AQ.

9.33 for a shove if he fold AK 3/4. Assuming he is c/fing AQ.

9.99 for a shove if he fold AK 100%. Assuming he is c/fing AQ.


Checking v 6combo of AK, 3combo of AQ yields eV of 7.96

Okay with no rake all these hands are about .5 eV better which is pretty huge and obviously needs to be considered.
Basically if he is c/cing >1combo of AA we should be checking. If he is checking < or equal to 1 combo of AA we should be shoving.
If he is c/fing AA some non 0% this obviously becomes a trivial shove.

I would never consider betting here unless I was betting to make him fold a chop or fold AA.

I seriously don't think he has KQs in his opening range. If he does this changes things but basically what will happen is a 1/3-2/3 psb will become better if he has no combos of AA/KK in his checking range and it becomes even better if he has less and less combos of AK(rake in chops sucks obv.) It isn't huge though and shoving is probably still better.

Basically if he has both AA(< or equal 2 combos)/KQs in his river checking range we should be checking back unless we get him to fold some AA or all AK.

If he has no AA(no being 1 combo or less) and 2combos KQs we should be betting some amount that gets called by KQs(this becomes better if he has less AK too).

If he has no KQs which is my belief for a 10/9 UTG open but we should have positional stats anyway to always know better and no AA we should be shoving.

edit: also this guy SHOULD be(he doesn't think like this) checking AsAc as a bluff catcher if he is checking anything. Obviously this is because he doesn't block missed NFDs. I see no reason for AdA to check the river ever unless they know our gameplan with AK ldo.

Icanhasthreebet , i kind of have to agree with his thoughts though i probably would always make a standard river bet when checked to but that's cuz i'm unimaginative when multitabling. calling riversbets obv