set spotting 101 and a good time not to play mixed marriage

i think even the railbirds could call this one. what would you do differently as the opener? im thinking, pot-lead the flop for starters. as played i really think this is foldable on the turn. it screamed TTT!

Party Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
10 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $117.75
UTG+1: $51.67
UTG+2: $104.25
MP1: $81.75
MP2: $98.50
MP3: $48.15
CO: $53.35
Hero: $103.10
SB: $98
BB: $100

Pre-flop: (10 players) Hero is Button with Q K
UTG raises to $3, UTG+1 calls $3, UTG+2 calls $3, 3 folds, CO calls $3, Hero folds, 2 folds.

Flop: 9 T 5 ($13.5, 4 players)
UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 checks, CO checks.

Turn: 4 ($13.5, 4 players)
UTG bets $15, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 raises to $30, CO folds, UTG calls $15.

River: A ($73.5, 2 players)
UTG checks, UTG+2 bets $36.76, UTG calls $36.76.

Results:
Final pot: $147.02
UTG+2 shows 9d 9h
UTG shows Qd Qh

I find I can often spot a set (even the specific set) when I'm not in the pot.

When I'm holding the big pair, it becomes a lot different.

However, I do agree that UTG played this hand poorly. Especially the river, I think I can get away from QQ there with no problem.

i guess the trick is to take our own biases out of the picture and maintain our neutral reads. cause i did the same thing yesterday, and when i reread the hand, its painfully obv i was beat. heat of battle, you know, its a bitch.

I'm still treading around the low limits and I find the hardest thing about sniffing out a set is the difference between some dummy playing top pair bad kicker and someone actually playing a set. It all depends on reads I guess but I never fail to miss out on a huge pot when I first sit down at a table.

I would need to know more about UTG+2 to put him on a set.

Originally Posted by Fnord

I would need to know more about UTG+2 to put him on a set.

yes. but even just reading the board without ANY player reads at all should be alarming to qq.

1. the player making the min-raise is immediately to the left of the pf raiser, meaning that hes likely got strong starters, as opposed to say myself entering the pot with KQ on the button because of the multi-way action.

2. no information on a ragged flop, because there is no betting, but the interesting thing is that the pot is not built, meaning that it becomes less desireable for an attempted steal on later streets.

3. the minraise. this should be a beautiful board for qq, so im alarmed the second i meet resistance. if we consider point one, i think now we have to now be convinced we are facing a pair. AA and KK are unlikely, but possible. JJ is the hand we pray he has, but if we had him dominated preflop, there is now a very good (2/3 with jacks tens or nines) chance he has setted. it is inconceivable to me (by strictly reading the board) that this minraise could be made by an even smaller pr that we can beat or say AT.

4. the final tip off for me is the size of the bet being raised by UTG2. UTG2 is not raising here because QQ made a weak bet into the pot, allowing him to think that he could knock the pf raiser off the hand. QQ showed the 'strength' of his hand by betting full pot oop. once the set makes this realization, he comes out of the weeds.

ill risk making a bad fold with qq in this spot oop especially on the turn because i know i have to fight through another street of betting when i could be in a really bad spot. this is not the type of board that UTG2 would be making a raise 'for information'. and there are exactly zero draws out there (QJ could not exist?)

player reads are great, but simple logic has to be part of the equation.

Bet the flop, playing check raise with QQ here has low value for high risk. And with a rather weak preflop raise, the flop itself and the action given, there is alot of risk. Not betting here is the major mistake.

Slamming the turn and calling down simply follow the stupid line.

yep. and the bad part is he KNEW he was beat. check and call and 'please dont charge me too much'

by the way, i just saw the phil hellmuth 'dodging bullets' hand from the wsop. thats a sick laydown. love the man or hate him, thats a sick laydown, i dont care who you are.

siknd when you say you don't need reads in this situation i agree with you 100 percent. The min raise on that board is usually either two pair or set. the raiser has no need to "test" the hero because the board is so harmless. unless the opponent is highly complex and plans to bluff out on later streets, which i doubt at these levels of play.

double post

siknd when you say you don't need reads in this situation i agree with you 100 percent. The min raise on that board is usually either two pair or set

I would need to know more about UTG+2 to put him on a set.

I dont think fnord is saying that he would need a read to fold, he is saying that you dont know he has a set yet without a read.

At that limit, AA, KK, QQ, 2 pair, a set, and a straight draw are all often playing that way. I'd fold without reads, but with reads I might not.

No one is argueing that it's not a folding situation, just that it's not clearly, specifically, a set... and with reads it might not even be a fold.

set spotting continued. thankfully the flop comes with two spades, else SB flat calls and i go broke on the turn. as played, i was planning on check-raising until obv set shows himself and when i saw the turn come off knew woulda been on 4-outer...

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, 4$ siknd (8 handed)

MP1 ($476.91)
MP2 ($664.60)
CO ($390)
Button ($261.40)
SB ($391.60)
siknd ($751.68)
UTG ($426)
UTG+1 ($219.43)

Preflop: siknd is BB with A, Q. SB posts a blind of $2.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $4, MP1 calls $4, 1 fold, CO calls $4, 1 fold, SB (poster) completes, siknd raises to $16, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, CO calls $16, SB calls $16.

Flop: ($68) 6, Q, 5 (3 players)
SB checks, siknd checks, CO bets $55, SB raises to $110, siknd folds, CO calls $55.

Turn: ($288) A (2 players)
SB bets $140, SB calls $120.

River: ($548) K (2 players)

Final Pot: $548

Results in white below:
SB has 6h 6c (three of a kind, sixes).
CO has Jc Qh (one pair, queens).
Outcome: SB wins $548.

Originally Posted by siknd

set spotting continued. thankfully the flop comes with two spades, else SB flat calls and i go broke on the turn. as played, i was planning on check-raising until obv set shows himself and when i saw the turn come off knew woulda been on 4-outer...

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, 4$ siknd (8 handed)

MP1 ($476.91)
MP2 ($664.60)
CO ($390)
Button ($261.40)
SB ($391.60)
siknd ($751.68)
UTG ($426)
UTG+1 ($219.43)

Preflop: siknd is BB with A, Q. SB posts a blind of $2.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $4, MP1 calls $4, 1 fold, CO calls $4, 1 fold, SB (poster) completes, siknd raises to $16, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, CO calls $16, SB calls $16.

Flop: ($68) 6, Q, 5 (3 players)
SB checks, siknd checks, CO bets $55, SB raises to $110, siknd folds, CO calls $55.

Turn: ($288) A (2 players)
SB bets $140, SB calls $120.

River: ($548) K (2 players)

Final Pot: $548

Results in white below:
SB has 6h 6c (three of a kind, sixes).
CO has Jc Qh (one pair, queens).
Outcome: SB wins $548.

flop lead is so obvious unless opp is a donkey, miniraising is so bad.

I foooollllllld turn..............

siknd,

can you explain why you'd raise AQ out of the BB, and then check the flop when you hit TPTK on about as good of a board as you can hope for?

yes. i didnt want to take a flop five or six handed out of position, thats why i raise. ive been raising out of position with hands like these a lot more than i used to. for one, i dont like playing in unraised pots to begin with, and at the end of the day, i do have a strong hand.

the flop IS perfect for me, and i believe i have the best hand, only vulnerable to a flush draw. i think that by checking after open-raising pf, i can represent either a missed AK, or underpair nervous about the Q. i am hoping to induce the button to bet, and checkraise (amount dependent on whether or not SB calls along). i think this is the right play, since its a situation where im EITHER way ahead, or way behind (except to the flush draw, id be about even against say the king high flush draw: flush outs and over card. im not worried about the flush hitting the turn because of my redraw anyhow).

however, my plan has to change when the minraise comes out of the SB. i couldnt see him making that play with big spades because surely he would want me to come along. and while KQ was a possibility, i really really thought he had 66 or 55.

maybe it was a weak fold, but the results speak for themselves. what is your opinion?

I foooollllllld turn..............

i was a railbird by the turn. unless you are talking about the button. (i seem to have messed up the converter and i see that it displays both my opponents as the SB. really they werent )

i dont think button has enough money to fold the turn, once he makes his flop decision hes pretty much committed.

Originally Posted by siknd

yes. i didnt want to take a flop five or six handed out of position, thats why i raise. ive been raising out of position with hands like these a lot more than i used to. for one, i dont like playing in unraised pots to begin with, and at the end of the day, i do have a strong hand.

the flop IS perfect for me, and i believe i have the best hand, only vulnerable to a flush draw. i think that by checking after open-raising pf, i can represent either a missed AK, or underpair nervous about the Q. i am hoping to induce the button to bet, and checkraise (amount dependent on whether or not SB calls along). i think this is the right play, since its a situation where im EITHER way ahead, or way behind (except to the flush draw, id be about even against say the king high flush draw: flush outs and over card. im not worried about the flush hitting the turn because of my redraw anyhow).

however, my plan has to change when the minraise comes out of the SB. i couldnt see him making that play with big spades because surely he would want me to come along. and while KQ was a possibility, i really really thought he had 66 or 55.

maybe it was a weak fold, but the results speak for themselves. what is your opinion?

I think you should check preflop.

I also think leading the flop is better then trying to inflate the pot OOP by c/r'ing with such a lukewarm hand. Results mean nothing at this point because action hasn't been on other players. This is definately not a WA/WB situation.

Given that you checked, I think folding is the best play.

Originally Posted by Lukie

Originally Posted by siknd

yes. i didnt want to take a flop five or six handed out of position, thats why i raise. ive been raising out of position with hands like these a lot more than i used to. for one, i dont like playing in unraised pots to begin with, and at the end of the day, i do have a strong hand.

the flop IS perfect for me, and i believe i have the best hand, only vulnerable to a flush draw. i think that by checking after open-raising pf, i can represent either a missed AK, or underpair nervous about the Q. i am hoping to induce the button to bet, and checkraise (amount dependent on whether or not SB calls along). i think this is the right play, since its a situation where im EITHER way ahead, or way behind (except to the flush draw, id be about even against say the king high flush draw: flush outs and over card. im not worried about the flush hitting the turn because of my redraw anyhow).

however, my plan has to change when the minraise comes out of the SB. i couldnt see him making that play with big spades because surely he would want me to come along. and while KQ was a possibility, i really really thought he had 66 or 55.

maybe it was a weak fold, but the results speak for themselves. what is your opinion?

I think you should check preflop.

I also think leading the flop is better then trying to inflate the pot OOP by c/r'ing with such a lukewarm hand. Results mean nothing at this point because action hasn't been on other players. This is definately not a WA/WB situation.

Given that you checked, I think folding is the best play.

damn. you think youre doing something good, but within the good-ness are hidden mistakes.

thanks for the viewpoint, noted.

yea I used to pop AQo here on BB ALL THE TIME until I realized I was building a pot OOP, and by the time it got to the flop things usually didn't get better. Players were either folding when they missed or playing back with a set/2 pair etc. Ouch ;/