Shipping nut flush draws

Doing the stove work following the hand I posted yesterday, I see the value in check-shipping the nut flush draw OOP at the flop. I guess from the comments on that thread this is old hat to a lot of you, but I hadn't realised quite how good the equity could be.

I want to get a better grasp of just what defines a particularly favourable situation for this.

Obviously if we have something to go with it, like a gutshot or overs that makes it an easier shove, and if SPR is low it's favourable - I reckon we normally need about 4:3 when the money goes in, then folds are all pure profit.

Since these aren't the easiest thing to play OOP a fast line like this really seems advantageous, but I don't want to charge in going nuts with them without thinking it through and getting some opinions first.

Thoughts?

pro hint: fold equities

Sure, but how many folds do we need? If we need about 4:3 if we were certain to be called, are we good getting say 5:4 with 25% folds in a "normal" sized 3bet flop pot that just got half-potted to us?

Rough workings: 0.25 x 30bb = 7.5bb fold equity, and 0.40 x 1.25 x 200 = 100bb from the pots we win at SD (ignoring rake). Looks good, but probably not if say 200bb deep.

Is 25% folds a reasonable guess? Too conservative?

don't guess do math.

I remember reading an excellent thread from muzzard about FE with maths and stuff. Can't be bothered to look for it right now but will try after work today. Unless someone finds it first.

How much of villain's range does he b/f on flop? How much dead money is there to steal? These are key factors.

Originally Posted by bikes

don't guess do math.

Ok, so his 3betting range is:

{JJ+, AK}

For 21 combos of the pairs and 12 of of AK (assuming we hold an ace blocker, but not AKs).

If we check-ship a low flop he continues with all the pairs, and folds all the AK, so we fold out 12 combos = 36%

If we check ship an A high flop he continues with AA and all AK, and folds all KK-, so we fold out 18 combos = 54%

If we do it on a K high flop, he continues with AA, KK and all AK, we fold out QQ- which is 12 combos = 36%

On a Q high flop, he continues with AA, KK, QQ. He folds JJ and AK, so 18 combos fold = 54%

On a J high flop, he continues with all his pairs again, and folds all AK = 36% folds

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If he's even tighter, and won't 3bet JJ, so his range is now QQ+ and AK = 15+12 = 27 combos

On a low flop he continues all pairs and folds all AK = 44% folds
On an A high flop he continues AA/AK, folds KK- = 44% folds
On a K high flop he continues KK+ and AK = 22% folds
On a Q high flop he continues QQ+ and folds all AK = 44% folds

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Nice.

In either case, K high flops look like the relatively worst place to do it, but let's see:

Stacks were 100bb before the hand was dealt. We raise A7s in the CO to 3bb and the BTN makes it 9bb, it folds around, we call and the flop pot is 19.5bb with 91bb behind.

FLOP: {Ks4s6d}

We check and for simplicity we assume he will bet 100% of the time. He bets 10bb so the pot is now 29.5bb and we ship it in for 91bb. He folds 36% of the time, and continues the other 64% of the time with {KK+, AK}, in which case we have 36% equity in a 201.5bb pot

EV = 0.36*(1*29.5) + 0.64*((0.36*101.5)-(0.72*91)) = -8bb

Let's see how often he does have to fold for it to break even.

FOLDS*29.5 + (1-FOLDS)*-29 = 0

Basically half the time.

As7s vs {KK+, AK} does considerably better in the stove on a board of {9s4sQd} with 44% equity. We get 54% folds so;

EV = 0.54*29.5 + 0.46*((0.44*101.5)-(0.56*91)) = +16bb

So low flops don't look like such a good spot for this, but Ace or Queen high flops look favourable.

I need to do a little more playing with different board textures, but basically it seems to me that King high boards both trash our pot equity, and our fold equity, by hitting his range harder.

Low flops are a bit in the middle - we have decent pot equity, but we don't get so many folds. Eg.

on {2s4s6d} villain folds 36% and has 54% equity if he continues with {KK+}.

EV = 0.36*(1*29.5) + 0.64*((0.46*101.5)-(0.54*91)) = +9bb

Does this agree with generally accepted practise here? Am I missing anything? (Other than the relatively minor factor that we might even get him to occasionally fold TPTK or an overpair fearing a set if he's nitty).

Incidentally, if we're playing this IP instead, if he donks out into us on the flop, I wonder what your opinion is of shipping it in there?

I would think we can assume he has a weak to middling made hand he wants to try and potcontrol from OOP with and wants to get to showdown relatively cheaply, or has a pretty strong hand and is trying to prevent us checking behind to outdraw him. So although we know he has a made hand and probably not whiffed overcards, we also know he's unlikely to want to get it in and will probably fold quite a lot if we blow all-in.

Thoughts?

if your villan is only 3 betting JJ+AK you dont need to call his 3 bet OOP with A7s.
if hes 3 betting wider then you have alot more fold equity when you shove with the added bonus you might even get called by worse draws
also jamming Axs on Axxss to make JJ-KK fold out is stupid.

Originally Posted by kickass

if your villan is only 3 betting JJ+AK you dont need to call his 3 bet OOP with A7s.
if hes 3 betting wider then you have alot more fold equity when you shove with the added bonus you might even get called by worse draws
also jamming Axs on Axxss to make JJ-KK fold out is stupid.

Thanks. It is indeed stupid - I got bogged down in the maths/combos and didn't look at the overall picture. Still an interesting exercise for me though.

It looks like he has to be 3betting really rather wide for us to have much preflop equity though. I get A7s having 42% against {88+,ATs+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,AJo+,KJo+,QJo} (11% or so), which is probably more than enough equity for it to be playable once we factor in all the folding at the flop that will be going on.

Doing this range vs range instead, I get similar equity (47%) with us having a calling range of {JJ-77,AQs-A2s,KTs+,QJs,AQo+,KQo} against his light 3bet range above.

It does seem like villain has to have a markedly wide 3bet range. Does it really need to be that wide, or are we likely in a position to call against say a 9% 3bet range like {88+,ATs+,KTs+,QJs,AJo+,KQo} ?

Is there some simpler way I am missing of calculating (or estimating with reasonable accuracy) how much additional equivalent pot equity we get from him bet-folding the flop?

In the A7s example, the 75%+ of times we flop neither an ace nor a flush draw, we're generally bet-folding flop, right?

no need to worry about pre flop equity, youre not getting it in pre.
you are trying to defend your opens vs someone who is 3betting you IP too much.
it is unlikely your villain would waste hands he can proffitably call with like QJs or 99, he is more likely to use Ax or Kxs maybe some low connector he felt he couldnt proffitably call, obviously he'll still have a bunch of value hands he's 3 betting depending on how wide he thinks youre calling.
if we're calling 3 bets w trash like A7s to take it away later we'll be using our reads on villain to decide how that is possible. (its fucking difficult OOP, maybe consider fucking off the table)
hope I explained that well enough ive been drinking (degens gonna degen )