The answers to your questions, imo, come only with experience. We all pay off trips with tptk or overpair more often than we would like. There's no secret to getting reads other than playing tens of thousands of hands and trying to make the best decision each time. Over time you will make more laydowns when your good cards are beat.

The answer to your question, however, is YES on NL10. Players are passive. When they come out with a raise (especially a big one) they have what they think is the nuts more often than not.