Since people seem a little scared of this one, I'll give an example range and answer these questions.
(A note for those who don't know, a pot-sized raise is when you raise to what the pot would be if you called the bet you're facing. So for Villain the pot is 12.5bb when he's facing a bet of 5bb, if he called the pot would be 17.5bb, so that's the amount he raises to for a pot-sized raise. We'll use this in a moment.)
Suppose my answer to Exercise 2 was that I open raise {broadways, 22+, A2s+, T9s-65s, K9s-J9s}. Then on this flop of T6
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I'll continuation bet 5bb with all of my broadways, TT+, 66-55, T9s, 98s, 87s, 65s, and J9s. That leaves me checking with 44-22, 99-77, 76s, K9s, Q9s.
1. Are you vulnerable to a flop pot-sized raise against your flop c-betting range from Exercise 2 if Villain has KQ?
If I bet 5bb into 7.5bb, then a pot-sized raise for Villain is a raise to 17.5bb. He's betting 17.5bb when the pot is 12.5bb, so he would need us to fold about 58% for his bluff to be +EV, not counting his equity when we call. So let's see how often we're folding to a raise.
Villain holds KQ on a board of T65r, and our c-betting range is {broadways, TT+, 66-55, T9s, 98s, 87s, 65s, J9s}. Here I'm going to quickly list all of the hands and how many combos there are of each, and then we'll decide what we would fold to a raise:
AK(12), AQ(12), AJ(16), AT(12), KQ(9), KJ(12), KT(9), QJ(12), QT(9),
JT(12), AA(6), KK(3), QQ(3), JJ(6), TT(3), 66(3), 55(3), T9s(3), 98s(4), 87s(4), 65s(2), J9s(4)
Which is 159 if I counted it right and didn't miss anything. So what hands would we continue with against this opponent's range? Let's pretend it's as loose as {TT+, 66-55, AT, 65s, 87s} and that we never fold TPTK or better (even though in reality we often would against someone this tight). That's 45 combos, and would mean we're continuing with 28% of hands, and folding 72% of hands. So clearly we're vulnerable to this flop raise.
2. Are you vulnerable to Villain calling the flop with KQ and betting 2/3 pot whenever you check the turn?
Instead of giving you a worked out answer, I'll describe what you'd need to show to decide this. First you need to show how often you would need to check/fold the turn for it to be +EV for Villain to float. Villain would be investing 5bb on the flop and about 12bb on the turn (2/3 turn pot of 17.5 is about 12) for a total of 17bb. He would be investing this money to win the 7.5bb in the pot plus the 5bb we bet on the flop for a total of 12.5bb. So he would need us to check/fold the turn more than 17/(17+12.5) = 58%. Now you just break down the range you bet on the turn and decide if you're check/folding it more than 58% on average to decide how vulnerable you are to a float.
3. What is your flop c-betting range trying to exploit in Villain's play?
Most of you should find in 1 & 2 that you're vulnerable to having your c-bets raised and/or being floated by this opponent in this spot. Your play is exploitable, but that is a direct result of something you're trying to exploit in what you think of your opponent's strategy here. What is that?
Note: By definition, when you're playing an exploitive strategy, you're vulnerable to being exploited. You're risking being exploited banking on the fact that you don't think the BU will exploit your play while trying to exploit him.



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