Station makes first PFR, I hit set, i'm lost on ranges

the main villain is 47/0/1.3 over 80 hands. i'd seen him flat a raise with AKo, so i'm not certain that a PFR just means the premiums.

the villain who called on the BU is probably the most solid TAgg reg i've seen at the PLHE tables.

my main question is about how to handle the river scare card, and would like some help on thinking through the ranges for each street.


Full Tilt Pot-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($10.15)
UTG ($11.73)
MP ($9.35)
CO ($11.24)
Button ($18.52)
Hero (SB) ($11.12)

Preflop: Hero is SB with ,
2 folds, CO bets $0.20, Button calls $0.20, Hero calls $0.15, 1 fold

this isn't usually a call for me preflop, but i had notes of some pretty horrific post-flop play by villain and since it was his first PFR i put him on a strong range and was figurin' to make 110bb's very often when i hit my set. i couldn't decide whether i should be thrilled or annoyed that the other shark was coming along 'cause it boosted my implied odds but i figured his calling range was like 90% SC's and low to mid pp's so it was kinda hurting my reverse implied odds.

Flop: ($0.70) , , (3 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $0.30, Button calls $0.30, Hero raises to $1.20, CO calls $0.90, 1 fold

it kinda bugs me that the BU called the cbet 'cause his range was becoming razor thin, but i raise and he folds so i'm happy. generally a <1/2 PSB/call line from a fish station generally means weak pairs or draws (although sometimes it's the nuts), but there aren't many in his range. i doubt he's raising 76s as his first PFR in 80 hands. a split pair is like meh possible. JJ+ still seems most likely to me. whether or not this could be a weak paired ace becomes really important for later in the hand.

fwiw his SD stats were like 33% WTSD and 40% W$SD and he'd only folded like 14% to cbets so i tend to put his range on the weaker throughout the hand (i'd seen him call a PFR w A2o and call a cbet on a 43x board).

Turn: ($3.40) (2 players)
Hero bets $2.40, CO calls $2.40

pretty safe card so i don't feel the need to PSB. this bet is exactly 2x's the flop bet and it sets up for a river shove of like 7.25.

River: ($8.20) (2 players)
Hero bets $4.80

alright so here's the million dollar question. i'm like banging my head on the keyboard right now, but it's still really hard for me to put him on a range that beats me...right? it's the river and i still feel clueless as to what he coulda raised preflop, but i figure most of his range is overpairs and my reads on him say that he's way too retarded to fold an over here to a 2x turn bet-size. my thinking is:

shove or 2/3 PSB/call > blocking bet/call > c/c > c/f > b/f

I pot the turn since villain clearly doesn't think to himself "That is a PSB, not 2/3, I better fold." or "That's a PSB, I no longer have odds to call my draws." since there's a shitload+3 on the board...

The river obviously sucks but I personally just put the rest in because he calls w/ so much. This depends on villain though sorta("SUPER nut hunting/fit or folder" or "c/c c/c c/c" 'r ? 47/0 can be both.), but I REALLY REALLY wouldn't be surprised to see that he was "slowplaying" overpairs here... I'm sure a case can be made for some kind of a fold on the river, but I'm not going to make it.


EDIT: By the way, I think the river shove results in us loosing a decent amount to A's oversets and straights. I just think it's the most EV. (no calcs done.)

bet more on turn, to like $3 instead. This makes the pot larger and makes it easier for villain to call a river shove of like 6.65 into 9.4. His range, like you say, is mostly overpairs, and i think its heavily weighted to QQ+. AK gives up on the flop (and likely isnt in range pre) and i dont really see him raising 88-JJ due to not raising anything in 80 hands. maybe he's just unlucky...but this behavior is almost always a strongish range. hands like 67 arent in his raising range or else he probably would have raised a 89 or a 9t or however many other hands he could have potentially gotten and not raised. This is true for 22-88 as well.

so, if his range is QQ+, shoving river is good. KK+, shoving is stll good since we have 50% equity and the pot size is large. However, i hate your river bet. Betting like 4.8 into 8.2 will cause villain to react a certain way. His QQ, KK hands (if theyre there) will call, and AA will raise. Obv we lose value from them here by not shoving then. Checking sux cuz im not sure KK, QQ have the balls to bet here. sooo as played

shove > your bet > checking

like i said though, by betting turn larger, his whole range of QQ+ still calls and have an easier time calling a river shove.

Around $7 behind? Just go ahead and stick it in.

It's got to be KK or AA- and like JKDS said you have 50% equity since I don't think AA is necessarily more weighted here so yeah get it in

well at any rate, he pushed, i called and he showed A3o.

c/f river bro donks have an ace every time

Originally Posted by surviva316

well at any rate, he pushed, i called and he showed A3o.