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agree with philly about your hud stats. i use fold SB/BB to steal, and 3bet as resteal from SB/BB. we can thus infer their call %'s by making up the difference to 100%. as for ranges, it's kind of unclear when we're working with specific situations (ie defending blinds, which only has the possibility to happen twice per orbit) without a large sample.
preflop i'd say something like:
22-JJ,A5s-AQs,A9o-AQo,KTs+,KJo+,Q9s+,QTo+,J9s+,JTo and some suited connectors like perhaps 65s-T9s, T8s, 97s,
as an aside note, if you are stealing a decent amount from the CO/BU, you might want to adjust your sizing down to 2.5x or whatever. just a thought.
on the flop:
Flop: ($0.65) 9 , 7 , K (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.50, BB calls $0.50
cbetting is obviously standard w/top pair here. i'd say his calling range looks something like
88,TT,JJ,A7s,A9,KTs+,KJO+,Q9s+,QTo+,J9s+,JTo,76s,8 7s,98s,T9s,T8s
we are absolutely crushing this range with something like 70% equity.
he may also have some nut hands like 97s, 99, 77, but i expect most villains to C/R these on the flop some non-zero % of the time. so they can be discounted imo. it's also possible he C/C's some of his prettier ace high hands like AQ,AJ (especially if they contain backdoor flush draws) but without any real reads, who knows.
Turn: ($1.65) 9, 7, K, 10 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1.57, BB raises to $3.14, Hero?
betting here is obv standard because we turn top two, and this card improves his range as well (most of his gutters now have middle pair, some hands now have two pair)
and he minraises us. i imagine this guy is just doing this with any hand = or > two pair. how many hands from his flop calling range is that?
TT,KTs,QJs,QJo,T9s,T8s
against which we have
Board: Ks 9h 7d Ts
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 76.860% 72.31% 04.55% 700 44.00 { TT, KTs, QJs, T8s+, QJo }
Hand 1: 23.140% 18.60% 04.55% 180 44.00 { KcTc }
and should probably just fold. what if we add in some pair/OESD hands?
Board: Ks 9h 7d Ts
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.723% 48.45% 02.27% 938 44.00 { JJ-TT, KJs-KTs, QJs, JTs, T8s+, 98s, 87s, KJo, QJo }
Hand 1: 49.277% 47.00% 02.27% 910 44.00 { KcTc }
personally, i have no idea which range is more accurate. to be honest, i would just ship the turn if i played this hand, he could even show up with some stupid KQ type hands here that are scared of the wet board. but i don't honestly know which is the best option. you would probably have a better feel for what this line means from a typical 10nler than i would.
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Suggestions on better play?
, K
, 7
, K
(2 players)
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Originally Posted by scott_owen
