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 Originally Posted by wonderland
This goes to show how two people play a hand differently. I think if i saw 456 i'd think it hit part of his range or maybe even hit it square on the nose.
So... i'd say the board is set wary and straight wary. I myself would not know whether to call half my stack here or what. His AF suggests that while he's a whale, he's also not TOO agro. If it was like 4.0+ then we can assume he's bluffing a lot.
I actually posted this hand because of a couple I watched you play and talk out loud about during our sweat. Of course this flop just smacked the heck out of about 15% of his range, but something like twice that many hands connect to this flop and give him enough outs he could play this way.
Nut hands: 44, 55, 66, 54, 65, 64, A4, K4, Q4, 74, 43, 87, 32, and 73 (yes, he's capable of showing down 73, tho probably only the sooooooted variety) plus some 4xs not already listed
Big combos/draws: 77, 33, 76, 75, 63, 53
Other stuff: any pp (though KK+ unlikely), hands like 82, 87, A7, etc. Lots of crap
The problem here is that he could literally have just about any two STARTING cards, but he can't have just any two cards once we get to the turn. The question is how many draws and baby combos he plays this way vs. how often he plays the nuts this way.
This line he takes leverages fold equity. Someone said he's less likely to play trips/straights like this, and I think that's correct. But he's still fairly likely to show down a big hand.
The question is whether there's enough junk left after the turn shove to make the call, and I think you get worried. The answer is there is probably enough, and we're just gonna have to pay off big hands.
Originally Posted by iopq
when we have an overpair and half a pot left I don't think there's a decision against anyone
if the fold is right, the raise was not correct
I can see why spenda is ready to go apeshit. All you spr guys quit thinking as soon as 1/3 of your stack is in the pot, and just call it down. You're virtually never pot-committed in cash game poker.
Originally Posted by iopq
dranger, your logic is flawed
he could be folding 70% of his hands, and raising 18%, calling 12% on the flop
he wasn't
Originally Posted by bjsaust
The problem with fish is, their lines often dont make any sense "no way would he play the nuts like this!" but sometimes they have it anyway. Thats why reads really matter.
I know what I'd do here, but I'll hold off comment for now.
Be interesting to hear what you'd do with this whole hand, start to finish, imo.
Originally Posted by surviva316
how do we account for the fact that there are certain parts of his range that he is more likely to play in the given manner than other parts.
For example: I am not at all surprised to see either 77 or A2 here so i tend to include these both in his range. But with 77 this is pretty much how i'd EXPECT him to play the hand, while with A2 i moreso just know that he's CAPABLE of playing the hand this way based on a few other hands we've seen him play, but i doubt this is how he plays it hundred percent of the time.
so should i only count like 50% of A2 hands (pretend like there are only 8 combinations of the hand) to compensate for the fact that playing A2 this way is only a possibility and not a certain part of his range? should i just ignore this altogther?
discount certain combos if they're not likely based on reads/ranges/action.
Originally Posted by linaker
Feel free to pick apart my logic.
You are losing to QQ+, 4x, 55, 66, 56, 23 and 78, but the villain could have 3x, 5x, 6x, 7x, PPs < JJ or even 2 overcards. You are a favourite against that range overall I think.
2 overs and 88+ are not much of his range, imo - he likes hands that can improve to the nuts
Originally Posted by Outlaw
I thought 1.5AF on stats like that was pretty aggro since he's in almost every pot.
I guess I am just not used to people shoving trips against a guy that has shown so much strength.. but on that board I guess its okay.
I will have to study this one some more when its not 1AM and I haven't just worked 10 hours. 
Yes, 1.5 AF is agro for this loose a player. But FOLDING is "aggressive." That's the part of AF that seems to elude some folks. Check/fold doesn't count at all in AF, so oop this villain is CAPABLE of the check/call, but he doesn't do it all that often relative to donking or check/raising.
That's why the check/call flop donk shove turn line means he's caught something - not saying he's ahead, just that he's not doing this very often with overs + air or 88. The AF = 1.5 means he's betting a lot when checked to on flop and turn, and that he's getting out of the way of strength when it shows up. If he's not getting out of the way here (and respects me, which you'll have to take my word for), what could he have? He's certainly capable of firing this turn bet w/ the immortal nuts.
Here's the rest of the hand for all y'all results oriented people:
scroll on down...
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b]Turn:[/b]  ($93.50, 2 players)
UTG+1 goes all-in $128.90, Hero goes all-in $54
River:  ($276.40, 2 players)
Final Pot: $201.50
UTG+1 shows:  
Hero shows:  
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