If he's on a draw in hand 3, you're missing value. If he picked up a draw, you're missing value. If he hit the ace, you're missing value. You can't give up an entire street here, especially at a level where value betting strong hands and punishing draws is *the* game.
Yeah, this makes sense to me now- lots of KJo etc. that could be drawing would probably make a huge dent in my stack if I overvalued toptwo when he hit.