Hmm, this is largely true. Preflop should be a call rather than a 3bet because I'm out of position with very deep stacks. The opponents ranges are already quite narrow because he was UTG raiser and that's not changing much and I'm really just juicing the pot while neither a strong favourite or underdog to his range.Originally Posted by Deanglow
Typically flops that are draw heavy are good to bet big on. I'm not quite sure why I bet small here, but I suspect I was afraid that I wasn't actually ahead - I should have made my commitment decision here and bet bigger. I guess I could argue that I did make the commitment decision here and intended the flop bet as a 'string him along' bet while not worried about being outdrawn. While seemingly spurious this argument could have some merit as evidenced by the A making me the full house to beat his likely AK holding - so he'd bet or call because he'd improved, but he'd have improved to a second best hand. The flop bet doesn't really fold out any hands (except 99 and lesser pocket pairs) and gets fairly minimal value as a value bet - it doesn't actually accomplish much.
Yeah, I like the turn too as played.
However, I'm fairly certain that shoving the river is -EV. The villain is not 3 betting, 4 betting or calling 3 or 4 bets lightly - preflop is pretty passive. Postflop he seems to fold marginal spots and basically never calls down crap - by the turn call I know with a high degree of certainty he has fairly solid equity with a hand like AK or AQ most likely. I think 95+% he's not folding AA, AJ, AQ, AK, KK, QQ to a river shove so I'm not folding out better. And the worse hands in his range by the river boil down to hands like KQs, TT, QJs, JTs where they are unlikely to have made it this far because it would have been a mistake to do so that I think it's unlikely this villain makes and if they were in his range by the river I would expect folds on at least KQs and QJs giving me no value on my shove. What do you think his range is by the river and what are you hoping to accomplish by shoving? Calls by worse or folds by better? Where's the money coming from?
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