Too experienced?

I know that the more you play the better you are. But can you play the percentages too much that you are actually predictable.

Charts, that tell you percentages and when to raise are all great. But if you go by them and lets say all the experienced guys know this, are you going to be predictable.

I'm hoping to learn these tables. Then play someone who has learnt all this stuff and use it against him/her. Knowing why their raising and playing their percentages. I BET it will work more often than not.

Is this possible?

I'm going to answer this from a lower limit holdem perspective.
.5/1 - 3/6

ABC Poker players can win these games.

If you are playing and find someone playing ABC poker, can you exploit them? MOST DEFINATLY!

If you see someone who only preflop raises with AA, what are you going to do if he raises before the flop?


Poker is all about exploiting someone

The math behind the poker is just a basis to playing, anyone who plays strictly by the numbers will not be a winning poker player, because there are too many different elements to the game, poker is not Blackjack. Learning all the statistics behind the game is good to know. It helps you. I bet you will be extremly hard pressed to find a straight by the numbers player, 1 because its not going to be a winning player and 2 because there is a huge influx in poker you will run into tons of bad new players before anything else.

Potential in a B&M game you could find someone like this.

anyone who plays strictly by the numbers will not be a winning poker player

I'm not convinced. With all of the loose calls and calling stations - I think by the numbers players can eek out a profit

I'm not convinced. With all of the loose calls and calling stations - I think by the numbers players can eek out a profit

You are definately right(at least at low limit tables). I am very much so a by the nubers player who almost never does anything very fancy and after about 15000 hands of 1/2 poker on party, I have a win rate of 1.51 BB/100. At higher limit tables, maybe 5/10 or higher, I'm sure that a purely by the numbers player will start to have trouble, but I've played as high as 3/6 before online and never had any problems finding loose players and calling stations to give me a profit.

So would you prefer a player who's experienced and you know their style. Or a relatively new player with less skill that you do not know anything about?

Originally Posted by lowriders

But if you go by them and lets say all the experienced guys know this, are you going to be predictable.

not necessarily. i'll use an imaginary FTR tourney (meaning good players) as an example:

- i raise preflop 4xBB with AK UTG
- everyone folds except humphrind, who calls my raise from the button
- the blinds fold
***what i THINK know so far: humpty PROBABLY doesn't have AA or KK or he would have reraised me. i don't know if he would have reraised me with QQ, i THINK he would have just called with JJ - 66 (MAYBE all the way down to 22 because of the implied odds) - and just called with AQ, AJ MAYBE AT suited

the flop is Q62 rainbow. i decide to semi-bluff bet (with my two overcards) and humpty calls. that's not what i wanted. ideally, he would have folded or reraised me. crap!
***what i THINK i know so far: no apparent draw on the board, so either he's chasing a little bit like i am with overs, he caught part of the flop, or he hit big and is slow playing.

i think you can see where i'm going with this - playing with someone that knows how to play maybe rules out some of the worse starting hands, but it's far from predictable.

good question with good discussion.

Originally Posted by fishstick

the flop is Q62 rainbow. i decide to semi-bluff bet (with my two overcards) and humpty calls. that's not what i wanted. ideally, he would have folded or reraised me. crap!

I had 62o that I slowplayed until the river when you caught TPTK and knocked you out.

Sorry. I know I'm not supposed to give hands away.

But the situation Fishy is describing is where I do best. I feel that I bring my best game to a table with good, not great, player. I can get a more acurate read and I can tailor my game to be profitable.

Good players will get scared of flops and bets, great players will read you and call you down. Bad players will be too 'stupid' to fold and call you down.

Humphrid, i have a great espect for you and fish stick.. but I was wondering, why would you call a 4XBB with 62o, I mean what were you really hoping for, you got lucky though and took fishstick out lol :P


-anto

Originally Posted by elanto

Humphrid, i have a great espect for you and fish stick.. but I was wondering, why would you call a 4XBB with 62o,

I knew Fishy was bluffing. He's got a wide-open tell online. And 62o was the perfect hand to show him that I was calling down his bluff.

Seriously. Fishy just made this hand up. It never happened. He just started on what the hand was and I chimed in to be a smart-ass and make up some seriously unlikely scenario to make it look like I won.

Though I turned it into a real hand. It never was.

Lowriders,

The central problem with your musing is that it fails to account for the fact most players suck up into the middle limits.

Winning poker is unnatural. I see it first hand when I'm coaching my father, at the card room and heck watch Celebrity Poker!

It's natural to want to play lots of hands. You came to gamble! You want to see just "one more card" and "keep people honest."

It's natural to see the monster under the bed. You see that guy raising you with his made flush draw. What else could he have? So you crawl under a rock and call down. When that just bleeds away money, you then learn to fold.

It's fun to raise every other hand, raise at random and "run over the table." With a hot run of cards it will make you a lot of money in the short run.

ABC poker is tight. ABC poker is aggressive. ABC poker picks its spots to run with middle pair and fold top pair. ABC poker can lose you a lot of money in the short run, but makes money in the long run (if you don't go on tilt during the rough times.) These things are not natural, they must be learned and fine tuned.

Also, consider that many of the best players have solid core of ABC poker, then augment that with opponent specific plays. As you gain more experience you make fewer ABC mistakes and find more opportunities to exploit your opponent's tendencies.

It all begins with ABC poker. After you master that, you can start making adjustments for certain situations, opponents, table image, etc.

On a side note, playing at a table with all solid players is sometimes great fun (although not as profitable overall). There's some plays you can make vs. people that know where the fold button is that are +EV that would be throwing your money away vs. the typical fish. I had a great time at the FTR Showdowns, wish I had enough time to play in the Gauntlet season this year.

Originally Posted by Fnord

....and heck watch Celebrity Poker!

I can't. I find it physically painful. "Must....kill.....Fred Savage...."

Originally Posted by DrNoChance

Originally Posted by Fnord

....and heck watch Celebrity Poker!

I can't. I find it physically painful. "Must....kill.....Fred Savage...."

...then must kill scott "dumbass" stapp...