True or False?

I've read somewhere on these forums that 10k hands is considered long term. If you can make it 10k hands and are showing profit, chances are you will are a winning player. Anyone agree with this statement?

Originally Posted by IOS

I've read somewhere on these forums that 10k hands is considered long term. If you can make it 10k hands and are showing profit, chances are you will are a winning player. Anyone agree with this statement?

10k hands will give you an idea where you stand but I wouldn't call it the long term. I would even go as far as to say that any winning player will sooner or later have a 10k hand streak of break even poker.

10K is the minimum # of hands you want to look at to see if you are profitable v.s. losing. It is by no means long term but can be used as a checkpoint to see how you are doing. More hands is always better to better wash out variance and see the true win rate.

10k is a weeks worth of player if you're playing a lot, but it gives you an ok look at how you're doing

I would go so far as to say that given a large enough sample size, any winning player will have a run of 10K hands losing, and 40K is not unheard of.
I did some math earlier to prove that a marginally "losing" player can realistically have a "good" run of over half a million hands.
10K is not long term. It is not close. It will give you a good idea of how you play, but not how you do.

From my Bankroll thread:

Originally Posted by I

To determine how long it will take for your average win to be 1 standard deviation, divide the square of your standard deviation for 1 hour by the square of your hourly rate.

hours to be ahead 84% of the time = (sigma/ev)^2.
*84% = the 68% of the time you will be +/- 1SD and the 16% you will be up more than 1SD.

This is one way to define the "long run". To find out how long it will take for your hourly rate to equal let's say 1.6 standard deviations, this is simply

hours to at least break even 95% of the time = (1.6*sigma/ev)^2.

At this point you have a 95% probability of being ahead.

To simplify the math lets assume a player with a winrate of 2BB/100hands and a Standard Deviation of 20BB/100hands

to have a 95% confidence of being ahead:
(1.6*20/2)^2 * 100 hands = 25,600 hands

now "ahead" doesn't mean at your true win rate... it just means >$0.

I agree. 10k is nowhere close. at 10k hands, I thought I was doing really good with a 2.8BB/100 winrate. in 15k hands it was down to 1.9. I heard someone once say that 80k is when you can have a fairly confident idea of your true winrate, but even then it's only like 85-90% accurate.

Estrop almost played 10000 hands in one night

WHoa...10K... 20 tabling?