Using VPIP to determine a Vs calling range

I can better determine a Villains hand range if I know what his pre-flop raise calling range is. Knowing that most solid players usually only call with PP, AK, and some w/ SC or SG, they are usually easy to play against. If your flop bet doesn't take them down and you have nothing or they raise your TPTK/OP, you are usually beaten. After reviewing my database I have come to the conclusion that most people who limp usually call a raise behind them. At most the difference between a person VPIP and flop seen was 3%, no matter how high their VPIP was and those w/ VPIPs of 30 or more tended to be less than 1%.

Lets say you call a raise w/ PP and AK/AKs/AQs (I have chosen to neglect reraises)
This is 7.5 % of all hands. I think this is pretty standard around here.
If you add in SC(54s+): 10%
+SG(64s+): 12.5%
As you can see a solid player is only calling a PFR w/ at most 12.5% of all hands.

Now if you take any 2 broadway card some players like to play.
Any 2 Broadway cards : 11%
All PP:6%
We are only looking at 17%.

So what are these people who have 35+ VPIPs playing?
My best guess..
Any 2 Brdway + PP + Axs + SC + SG: 23%
Any 2 Brdway + PP + Axs + SC + SG + Any Other A: 30%
Any 2 Brdway + PP + Axs + SC + SG + Any Other A or K: 37%
Any 2 Brdway + PP + Any Other A or K + Any 2 Suited: 51%

In conlcusion if a player has a VPIP of 35 then they are seeing about 36-37% of flops which means they are calling a pfr raise with JT+, PP, SC, SG, Ax and Kx. This is alot of junk 2 pairs out there for your AK on any Axx/Kxx board.

How many of you continue to bet OOP w/ AK on the turn with only TPTK against them? I am feeling lately that I am building a bigger pot for their 'monster 2 pair', although I stack them regular when I hit a set.
BTW I regular check TPTK in pos. on turn to prevent a made hand from C/R turn, to keep the pot small, and to induce a river bluff on a missed draw.
Any other suggestions on how to punish these types of players?

Well I think First that in a vacuum nearly any strong player would call PP AK/AQ Axs SC and some SG. I think the limit your playing is important when deciding what your VPIP means. In this case I think just the fact that you are seeing VPIP's of 35 means that you are in the .50/1.00 range or lower. In this case I think your plays against these players should not be to crafty. If you have AK and you make a fair sized raise preflop and you hit TPTK on the flop. The EV move is to bet ! ! ! You cannot worry about two pair in this case unless maybe KQx or possibly KJx in this case some caution is in order However K10x is a no brainer if they are bad enough to be in there with K10 then you should be making a healthy long term profit against this player. with an ace say flop Axx well there is the chance they have two pair but again at this limit the straight forward play of a large bet delivers the most EV for your buck.


Does anyone disagree ??

Well I always bet the flop and usually the turn when I hit. The situation comes in with weak players calling then raising the turn or river with their 2 pair or better. I am losing money when I have TPTK and I hit, not when I cbet. When they I have nothing they usually fold.

Originally Posted by Jager

How many of you continue to bet OOP w/ AK on the turn with only TPTK against them?

not many without post-flop reads

Originally Posted by Jager

Any other suggestions on how to punish these types of players?

Are you counting all the times they call your pre-flop raise and then fold to your flop bet? That's a lot of +eV right there.

No I'm not counting when they fold, its when they call that I'm concerned with.

So what's the question? What is the most +eV line vs a loose pre-flop caller with no post-flop reads after hero flops TPTK?

I can't answer that, but if they're calling that much pre-flop then raise more (as in more chips, not more often), them folding more pre-flop, and playing more straight forward post-flop is goot.