Variance.

This is helpful in explaining that every poker hand is practically unique, but less in explaining normal statistical variations in a player's winnings graph. An excellent tool to play with to figure these out is here:

ev++ Poker Tools :: Poker Variance Simulator

The relevant parameters are number of hands played, standard deviation and winrate, more than the number of possible combinations of starting hands.

For more insights about poker combinatorics and how to use them in play, see here:
http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...light=blockers

Originally Posted by daviddem

This is helpful in explaining that every poker hand is practically unique, but less in explaining normal statistical variations in a player's winnings.

I am aware of this, I mean to illustrate that we experience a never ending charade of unique situations. Obviously the variation is not as wide as it seems when looking at all possibilities, but i think for new players its easy to fall into expecting to have the same experience as any other person, not realizing that while there is a standard level of variance that you may be able to expect, variance in itself is not standard. and because there is beyond trillions of unique combinations you must play a lot of hands before you can come to any conclusions.

And when i was a first time player, i learnt and understood the mathematics of standard deviation. but i didn't really feel like it was that relevant to me until i'd played a lot. I also had an astromically long good run that made me think i was seriously shit hot when i really wasnt. I think that had someone shoved the enormity of possibility in poker in front of me i'd have been less inclined to make quick judgements that led to me spewing chips thinking i was just running bad, when actually i had big leaks.