Villain leads paired river.

This hand confuses me.

Villain is 56/0/1 fish over 16 hands, fold to cbet 3/3.

Std 3bet pre. How does flop and turn bet sizing look? Otr, I'm hella confused. I find it very difficult putting villain on a range given the sparsity of information, he could well have raise/called 22 pre, but surely he would have shoved over my turn bet then? I'm assuming I shouldn't be too worried about the flush as I doubt he would have much more than ATcc+ in his range? JJ+ are definite possibilities and maybe 77, 44. Am I always beat here?

Help please!




PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) - PokerStars Hand Converter from HandHistoryConverter.com

CO ($20.92)
Button ($11.54)
SB ($10.50)
BB ($10.47)
UTG ($21.39)
Hero (MP) ($11.42)

Preflop: Hero is MP with Q, Q
UTG bets $0.30, Hero raises to $0.90, 4 folds, UTG calls $0.60

Flop: ($1.95) 4, J, 7 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $1.50, UTG calls $1.50

Turn: ($4.95) 2 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $3.40, UTG calls $3.40

River: ($11.75) 2 (2 players)
UTG bets $15.59 (All-In), Hero ??

I can't think of any hands he'd play this way that you beat, he's probably incapable of turning made hands into a bluff.

Hi there,

I'm new here, so take what I say with a pinch of salt, if anyone has any counter arguments please post.

I'm not so savvy with properly talking about ranges and win percentage thus, so I'll go about it in the longer english version.

I actually think with our limited information that we absolutely consider flush possibilities, we could say that if this were sampled over 100 hands that they're definitely a crazy fish.
You're right I think they would've re-raised with 22, if we're assuming they're a bad player then they may have just flat called on the flop with any set.

A lot of the time I think maybe villain either has you beat or has nothing, but in my unfortunate experience a bet like that on the river at these levels means they have a hand and they decide to go all in on the off chance you call with a lesser hand. At higher levels it might pass as deception.

All in all though - let's face it, queens have been folded on a lot less scary boards
This has got to be a fold, you said yourself you've not a good read on this guy, which is reason enough, the size of the bet is just too much.

If he makes more moves like this in the future then don't get frustrated that this hand may have been stolen from you. Instead make this decision later, when you're more sure of the strength of their hand, and more certain of the strength of yours.

Thanks for your input Jour-Ne'. I agree that when villain leads like this he most likely has something that has me beat most of the time, however it has been brought to my attention that due to the pot odds (I only had around $5 behind on the river), I only need 25% equity to call. Fish can be jamming any Jx and occasionally in this spot which make up a greater number of combinations in his range than flushes and sets.

Another chat transcript with the Carrotman, excuse the formatting:

[28/08/2011 18:28:06] Barb: QQ hand just sigh and call the river
[28/08/2011 18:28:19] Barb: you need to be good like 25% if Ive worked out your eff stack correctly
[28/08/2011 18:28:27] Barb: pots so big hel jam his Jx some amount
[28/08/2011 18:28:34] Barb: and thiose combos outweigh flushes
[28/08/2011 18:28:35] Barb: so we defo cannot fold

[28/08/2011 18:29:21] Mamo: yea i had like $5 at the end

[28/08/2011 18:29:30] Barb: yeah defo call
[28/08/2011 18:29:36] Barb: you're certainly not always beat vs a fish
[28/08/2011 18:30:11] Barb: if it was like a ;pot sized shove its a fold
[28/08/2011 18:30:22] Barb: because hes A less likely to do that with Jx and B you need 33% equity
[28/08/2011 18:30:31] Barb: vs this jus sigh and snap it
[28/08/2011 18:31:05] Barb: shit like T9s 89s isnt impossible either
[28/08/2011 18:31:20] Barb: actually that hella unmlikely
[28/08/2011 18:31:22] Barb: when he opens utg
[28/08/2011 18:31:31] Barb: but you knpow what else is hella unlikely when he opens utg?
[28/08/2011 18:31:45] Barb: FLUSHES
[28/08/2011 18:31:58] Barb: how many club club combos ios he raising here
[28/08/2011 18:32:01] Barb: like 6 or something
[28/08/2011 18:32:10] Barb: hes 1234455/0
[28/08/2011 18:32:18] Barb: hes limping like all the suited cards he wants to play
[28/08/2011 18:32:38] Barb: you should give him like AcKc AcQc AcJc AcTc KcQc at most prolly
[28/08/2011 18:32:40] Barb: 5 combos
[28/08/2011 18:32:56] Barb: then AJ is like 12 combos
[28/08/2011 18:33:01] Barb: justr for a start
[28/08/2011 18:33:08] Barb: and ypou need 25% equity
[28/08/2011 18:33:25] Barb: 77 and 44 are also heavily discounted
[28/08/2011 18:33:30] Barb: due to the fact he just limps these pre
[28/08/2011 18:33:51] Barb: AJ TT etc is jus more likely
[28/08/2011 18:34:02] Barb: he plays flushes like this more often than he plays AJ etc like this
[28/08/2011 18:34:12] Barb: but the combos and pot odds still render this a call
[28/08/2011 18:34:18] Barb: IMO
[28/08/2011 18:34:25] Barb: fish do dumb shit!

good time to fold, nh

This may just be my ignorance about the math of these situations. I can see you only need 25% equity to make this a break even (?) proposition. But that can that not only be true when we have a stronger read on the opponent?

Whilst I can't claim to be able to read lines like books I'm struggling to understand why villain would only bet "6 combinations of clubs" or that he limps 44 to 77 pre-flop? Where does that information come from? How does one ascertain that from 16 hands? Is there something I'm missing here? Should I be making these kind of calls?

Originally Posted by Jour-Ne'

This may just be my ignorance about the math of these situations. I can see you only need 25% equity to make this a break even (?) proposition. But that can that not only be true when we have a stronger read on the opponent?

Whilst I can't claim to be able to read lines like books I'm struggling to understand why villain would only bet "6 combinations of clubs" or that he limps 44 to 77 pre-flop? Where does that information come from? How does one ascertain that from 16 hands? Is there something I'm missing here? Should I be making these kind of calls?

the 3/3 folds to cbets over this sample tells us enough to narrow villain's range here a lot. When a villain with 0% pfr calls two streets then jams the river once the obvious draw completes we get more clues.

getting 3:1 means it's a fold i am probably incapable of making a lot of the time though

Defo don't think we should fold for reasons included in that rant.

Reading through this a couple of times I can totally see why this is an easier (figure of speech) call than I thought it was. I would be folding this before, and before that I was way too loose so would prolly call as well but for the wrong reasons - I'm glad I started posting on this forum!

if the sample size was bigger then counting combos AJ/JJ/QQ/KK/AA/AcKc/TJs
but as it is, meh, i think folding is better but i guess i can see that calling isn't terrible cos 3:1 etc

i think this one's a call.