When do you move up?

I’ve been playing $25NL at Party for about a month and so far I’m up around $300. I also got PT a few days and my stats are decent though I definitely have a lot to work on (like not losing money with AJ, KQo, JJ, etc.). I’ve got over 8,000 hands and I’ve made over 3 BB/100 hands, with VP$IP at around 25%, which is a tad high, but still acceptable. My question is this: is this a big enough sample or do I need more? Do you guys think it would be advisable to move up to $50NL? Obviously, I would need to double my BR, but that’s a non-issue. My aggression is also probably low (I’m at work and don’t have the numbers, but I think overall it was at 0.8) because the more I’ve learned, it seems like the more weak/tight I become. Back in the day before I knew anything, I could bluff a huge pot with bottom pair and pull it off most times, but now my balls are itty bitty and I end up folding a few winners. Any thoughts would be appreciated.

I can't address the PT stats, but I can say that I have noticed my play has gone weak/tight as well of late. I used to be gung ho and pretty TAggy when I first started visiting this site and playing online.

I've been trying to work on it. I've started raising more than calling and even reraising pre-flop. I had forgotten what it was like to pick up a pot with a bet on the flop.

Not trying to be an ass when I say this. If you have to ask us if your ready to move to the $50 NL tables then your not ready.

Give the NL $25 game more than a month. You could be on a good run, 8k hands it still short and your BB/100 can change pretty drasticly in 1 bad night of play.

Moving up isn't just about having the "bankroll". Its about knowing that your beating your current game consistantly. Once your confident you can beat your normal game get your bankroll set then give the next level a try.

Your on a good start, don't try to rush into the next limits before your game is ready. Your just going to frusterate yourself if you try.

Thats the advice of someone who did exactly what your doing. I ran great for my first few months. I moved up and went bust because my game wasn't ready.

Thanks for the replies. Mike, your probably right in that I should wait until I feel comfortable. I still have bad nights and make stupid plays. I should also probably work on my aggression before I move up. Right now, it's pretty much fold, fold, fold till I get a good starting hand then play it by the book, which has been profitable but also predictable and almost boring sometimes. I think I need to learn to mix it up a bit.
If 8000 is short, what's a good reliable sample size? 20000? 30000?

To me, moving-up should be about comfortability and confidence. Confidence that your strategy is working and confidence you can manage to take win/loss variation at the next level. E.g. losing $100 on a 1/2 limit table could mean $400 on a 2/4 limit table. While other folks might feel uncomfortable betting $8 on a hand vs. $1,

When I first started I thought throwing down $5SnG and 10$ buy-ins for ring games was stressfull.... who would of thought I would be playing in $30 SnGs and $100 buy-ins... The nice thing about "graduating" to a higher-table is the potential profit you can gain. Just 6-months ago, I thought $10/day was a good day. Now I can bring-in 10-20x that amount with very little risk to the bank account.

You want to learn to mix it up a bit?. Now its time for self evaluation. Take a day off of party poker and fire up poker tracker and replay your sessions.

Spend time re-playing your hands step by step. As you re-play hands think about how you want to play them. See what you did, and what you could have done. Your trying to spark thoughts, this is the time for what if's, What if I would have re-raised, why didn't I call that, well should I have folded the turn to that pot sized bet, why did he bet like this was he trapping me?

The more you study your game the more you will see. You will find leaks in your game, missed bets, and after a few months you'll feel better about all of the moves you make.

I know we're getting off of your original topic but these are things to think about .

Krapp -
Variance doesn’t really bother me, as long as I have an adequate bankroll. I see any loss as a % of BR, so if I lose twice as much, it won’t bother me provided I double my BR. It’s the winning twice as much that makes me want to do it.

As far as confidence goes, I don’t know. I don’t mean to sound arrogant, but it seems really easy for me to be profitable at the Party $25NL tables just playing by the book. And that’s with all the stupid mistakes I still make. I’m just wondering if this strategy will work in the $50NL games. Are the players twice as good? And, repeating my question from above, what is a good sized sample to evaluate my play?

Mike -
Poker tracker is awesome for self-evaluation. For one, I noticed that I hardly ever check/raised unless I had the goods. So yesterday, whenever I felt like someone was just buying the pot, I bluffed the ckeck/raise and took down a few pots with it. I’m also getting better at smelling the slowplay and have pretty much stopped playing shit hands like QJo.
I guess what I’m saying is this: I’ve only been playing for a few months and I know that I have tons of leaks and that I have to work on them, which I am. I just want to make more money as I improve my game.

Originally Posted by rivercrest13

As far as confidence goes, I don’t know. I don’t mean to sound arrogant, but it seems really easy for me to be profitable at the Party $25NL tables just playing by the book. And that’s with all the stupid mistakes I still make. I’m just wondering if this strategy will work in the $50NL games. Are the players twice as good? And, repeating my question from above, what is a good sized sample to evaluate my play?

I would just look at your profit/loss at the end of the week or month. I would prefer spending at least 1-month at a table before making any decisions. If you are confident, i would move up, assuming the money size and BR isnt an issue. From what I have found players arent that much better at any low limit stake table you might play online. To answer your question, if your making money on the $25 NL you should also make money on the $50 NL. I have at least....

Poker tracker is awesome for self-evaluation. For one, I noticed that I hardly ever check/raised unless I had the goods. So yesterday, whenever I felt like someone was just buying the pot, I bluffed the ckeck/raise and took down a few pots with it. I’m also getting better at smelling the slowplay and have pretty much stopped playing shit hands like QJo.

I found this same exact leak using poker tracker, combined with looking at Fnord's hand histories. Check raising TPTK is a great play. I occasionally check raise straight and flush draws now also.

Originally Posted by rivercrest13

I guess what I’m saying is this: I’ve only been playing for a few months and I know that I have tons of leaks and that I have to work on them, which I am. I just want to make more money as I improve my game.

Keep self evaluating with poker tracker and take your time, poker isn't going anywhere anytime soon.

Your thinking backwards, "I want to make more money as i improve".
Think Field of Dreams. "If you build it they will come". Improve your game and the money will come.

Originally Posted by rivercrest13

I’ve got over 8,000 hands and I’ve made over 3 BB/100 hands, with VP$IP at around 25%, which is a tad high, but still acceptable.

I'm not sure, but I think that BB in Pokertracker for no-limit refers to the big blind. If that's the case, then 3BB/100 seems a little low for no-limit.

I play mostly limit, and win around 2.5BB/100 hands (except at 5/10 where I am at -8BB/100 after several hundred hands ), where BB refers to a big bet (2x the big blind). That equates to 5 big blinds per 100 hands.

What I have always heard is that you need a higher win rate at NL because your per hand variance tends to be higher, but your increased win rate compensates so that your session variance tends to be less.

I am a terrible NL ring game player. I have a pretty meaningless small sample (about 2000 hands) of NL at the .10/.25 blinds game ($50 max buy in) at Absolute Poker. I am winning about 12 BB per hundred hands. Maybe one of the NL gurus can comment on their statistics.

Originally Posted by mike4066

Keep self evaluating with poker tracker and take your time, poker isn't going anywhere anytime soon.

lol. You're right, but with how much I've been playing lately, it seems like it. I have an obsessive need to be good at games and I can't stop until I "beat" them. I guess I'll never "beat" the poker game and should be more patient. When I first started at Party, I told myself that I was going to wait to move up till I made $1000, but I got impatient. I probably should stick to my original plan but like Xianti says: "Making money is fun."

By the way, no one has answered my other question:
How many hands is enough to properly evaluate your play?

Originally Posted by rivercrest13

How many hands is enough to properly evaluate your play?

I would suggest 5000ish. 1000ish is definately too small... 10000 is probably overkill. Although the more the better... You could also try look at multiple 1000ish sets together

Originally Posted by koolmoe

I'm not sure, but I think that BB in Pokertracker for no-limit refers to the big blind. If that's the case, then 3BB/100 seems a little low for no-limit.

It's still 2x the BB. 3BB/100 is $3/100 at $25NL. Not bad, but the players are bad enough that there is probably room for improvement. Of course, your sample size is small...

I am a terrible NL ring game player. I have a pretty meaningless small sample (about 2000 hands) of NL at the .10/.25 blinds game ($50 max buy in) at Absolute Poker. I am winning about 12 BB per hundred hands. Maybe one of the NL gurus can comment on their statistics.

The game drives me nuts. Lots of different viable strategies and at the higher levels it gets really weird. However, against bad players, it's a like shooting fish in a barrel. I guess I like playing out marginal situations, lots of betting information and showing down a hand when I have doubts.

Originally Posted by koolmoe

I'm not sure, but I think that BB in Pokertracker for no-limit refers to the big blind. If that's the case, then 3BB/100 seems a little low for no-limit.

I'm pretty sure BB is 2x big blind in NL too. And my variance is not that big anyway.

btw, thanks a lot for all your help.

Originally Posted by Fnord

It's still 2x the BB. 3BB/100 is $3/100 at $25NL. Not bad, but the players are bad enough that there is probably room for improvement. Of course, your sample size is small...

You're right; I'd like to double it. If I can stop making stupid calls when I know I'm beat (i.e. "I'm sure he doesn't have the flush"), it would be a start.

Originally Posted by Krapp

Originally Posted by rivercrest13

How many hands is enough to properly evaluate your play?

I would suggest 5000ish. 1000ish is definately too small... 10000 is probably overkill. Although the more the better... You could also try look at multiple 1000ish sets together

10k is a good start.
20k is better


But i like to evaluate myself after about ever 1-2k hands.