When will I know if I suck?

After much dabbling at various limits and table sizes, I've decided to devote my undivided attention for a while to .10/.25 NL 9-handed ring games to get a sense of my true ability. After around how many hands do you all think it will take to smoothen out a lot of the variance and get a real sense of the quality of my play?

Thanks.

100,000. To get a better idea right now, post some hands that you got involved in :P

10k should be enough to give you an idea...

Originally Posted by killerkebab

100,000. To get a better idea right now, post some hands that you got involved in :P

Well, this is the biggest one of my journey thus far... this was my 2nd hand at this table. In the first hand, this particular villain raised 12xBB from the BB after 2 limpers.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (8 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($70.70)
Hero (BB) ($35)
UTG ($25)
UTG+1 ($38.25)
MP1 ($31.20)
MP2 ($49.40)
CO ($47.05)
Button ($24.60)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K, K
6 folds, SB calls $0.15, Hero raises to $1, SB calls $0.75

Flop: ($2) 3, Q, 5 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1.50, SB raises to $6.25, Hero raises to $34 (All-In), SB calls $27.75

Turn: ($70) A (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($70) 2 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $70 | Rake: $3

Preface: Philosophical post.

When will you know if you suck? It depends.

If you suck already: When it dawns on you that it doesn't matter if you suck, there are a bunch of people that suck more than you that you can extract monies out of by continuing to not suck as much as them.

If you are in between sucking and owning: Probably never. You may never know if you suck, and will constantly be stuck wondering if you suck. So stop worrying, because you will never know, and it really isn't that important as long as you continue to learn and make good decisions

If you know you don't suck and are shooting fish in a mother fucking barrel like its your job: Then you probably wouldn't be posting, or you ran out of ammo with a tank full of sharks. Then either get a bigger gun, or find a different fish tank at the aquarium.

Moral of this stupid post: Don't worry if you suck, you are in the right place. Post some hands and get involved.

BTW, I probably suck, but I definitely suck less from reading FTR!

Villan reads are critical here. Is he a 12/4 nit with low aggression factor? I'll call the flop but will likely fold to a double barrel on the turn.

If he's a LAG donk, your play is standard.

Originally Posted by mieczkowusc

If you know you don't suck and are shooting fish in a mother fucking barrel like its your job: Then you probably wouldn't be posting, or you ran out of ammo with a tank full of sharks. Then either get a bigger gun, or find a different fish tank at the aquarium.

epic

right now. you suck.

now lets fix it!

Thanks for the responses. I'm going to try to read this forum more... so much easier just to sit down and play, though.

I think you're beat on the flop. Typically, if you bet 1/2 to 3/4 of the pot with top pair and are raised, you are beat. This is especially true if you are check raised.

OMG, stay out of the commune, it's the worst thing that will ever happen to your game.

That being said, if you run out of money you suck big hairy donkey balls. Even if you don't, you won't know shit in 10k hands. The longer you play the more confidence you gain. Anyone playing below 50NL can't say they don't suck, because they have no idea. Myself included.

If you want to work at getting better, you've come to the right place. Note: it will be work.

~Rilla's Alter-Ego

One questions comes to mind. Are you properly rolled for the stake you're playing? If not you won't give yourself a chance to develope. Think about playing at a lower level and building your skills.
Read the forums but imediately read everything in the beginners guide and then read it again. Then go to the Beginners Circle and read everything in the sticky called Beginners Digest: "LEARNING STARTS HERE". Then you're ready to kick it up a notch and see if you're going to be able to develope your skills.
Visit the forums often and be active. Post hands and take the advise and learn from it. If you disagree with something one of the members tells you then question yourself first, see what the others are saying and use what you can. The regs on here know their shit and are very generous to those who except there help.
Good luck and when ever you learn something please SHARE WITH ME!

assume you suck until proven otherwise

Originally Posted by Ian

Thanks for the responses. I'm going to try to read this forum more... so much easier just to sit down and play, though.

This attitude sucks. Learn first, play later.

BTW, welcome to FTR. I will echo some of the above advice. Read everything in the Beginner's Digest - it's there for a reason.

Use solid Bankroll Management - you'll be glad you did.

Keep posting lots of HH's.

And good luck at the tables.

If you think you don't suck, and you are not rich, you suck.

sucking is relative.
To answer your question - you already know.
Better question - how will you know if you're good enough to beat 25nl? I suggest sample size 20k+ hands is a good indication.