Quote Originally Posted by siknd
we all talk about variance in some vague sense. but how do you define it literally? i think variance is a little more rare than most ppl would like to think.

i define variance as losing with the money in as a 5:1 favorite or better.

examples:

variance
1. losing with 55 to A7 on a 357flop.
2. losing to set with AA
3. losing with set under set
4. never setting pocket pairs in a session.
5. losing several times in a row in race situations eg AK vs PP.
6. the dreaded running four flush.

NOT variance
1. losing with flopped straight
2. losing with best hand to a flush/ straight draw (even if opp given horrid odds)
3. AK vs AQ
4. KK vs AK

ive lost six buyins in an hour before, but ive never blamed it on variance.
I dont really think thats too accurate at all. Why would 5:1 be variance, but 4:1 not? How did you decide that number? It seems more like you are setting guidelines for what a bad beat is and isnt.

I agree that it is often blamed for leaks in our games, but I dont think it is really the way you described it.

Experiencing "negative variance" would be losing multiple 4:1s, 5:1s, etc. in a row, not just one. A single hand cant really be attributed to variance, but a series of hands in the short term that go against the statistical longterm outcomes of those hands.