Yes! Thank you for that link. This is definitely along the lines I was thinking.

Stats like VPIP and PFR converge quickly because the opportunity to do both happens every hand. However, 3-bet% takes longer to be meaningful, since it can't necessarily happen on every hand. Tying to pin down 4-bet% on the flop can take an immense number of hands. However, all this pertains to reading a villain.

The 10k hands is supposed to be the number that represents our overall profitability. At least it's meant to give us a somewhat variance-resistant sample size, which we need to justify a deep examination of our entire strategy. Otherwise we end up over-correcting things that may not need correcting at all.

P.S.: My citation of the Geometric distribution above was completely wrong. The Bernoulli trials stuff is all I'm using. I've linked the 2 in my head due to my own prior uses.