Winning?

Originally Posted by Icanhastreebet

It doesn't mean he's MUCH more likely to be anything. 40.6% chance he's a winner.

95% confidence interval over 10k hands spans about 28bb


edit: Using 90bb/100 standard deviation

The sample mean is positive. How can the % chance the true mean is positive be less than 50%?

x = (4.8 +/- 28) bb/100 :: (-23.2 < x < 32.8) bb/100

This contains more positive values than negative values, so what am I missing?

Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

The sample mean is positive. How can the % chance the true mean is positive be less than 50%?

x = (4.8 +/- 28) bb/100 :: (-23.2 < x < 32.8) bb/100

This contains more positive values than negative values, so what am I missing?

how did you come up with the formula mojo what do the numbers represent?

Originally Posted by gotigers1234

how did you come up with the formula mojo what do the numbers represent?

The numbers represent what your possible winrate is at 95% confidence, it's really hard to tell your true winrate over ANY sample, let alone one this small. I mean for example over 100k hands at 4.8bb/100 with std deviation 90bb/100 you can be 95% confident your winrate falls between 5.19bb/100 and -0.39bb/100 so even with this winrate over 100k hands you can't REALLY know you are a winner.

FYI: It takes about 200k hands at 90bb/100 std deviation to estimate your winrate with 95% confidence to + or - 2bb/100.

edit: It's supposed to be 10.38bb/100 and -.78bb/100(or read as BB/100 ). My bad! I was in a rush when I made this post, the 2nd part is still correct though.

Originally Posted by Icanhastreebet

The numbers represent what your possible winrate is at 95% confidence, it's really hard to tell your true winrate over ANY sample, let alone one this small. I mean for example over 100k hands at 4.8bb/100 with std deviation 90bb/100 you can be 95% confident your winrate falls between 5.19bb/100 and -0.39bb/100 so even with this winrate over 100k hands you can't REALLY know you are a winner.

FYI: It takes about 200k hands at 90bb/100 std deviation to estimate your winrate with 95% confidence to + or - 2bb/100.

.

Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

The sample mean is positive. How can the % chance the true mean is positive be less than 50%?

x = (4.8 +/- 28) bb/100 :: (-23.2 < x < 32.8) bb/100

This contains more positive values than negative values, so what am I missing?

I meant 40.6% confidence his winrate falls from 0-9.6bb/100 which is obviously pretty useless so I erased it from my post .