2013: Make or break

Had my first visit to woodbine of 2015. My goal is to go 15 times this year. The first didn't go particularly well, down $1350. First losing session in a long while!

Didn't play that well, but didn't play too poorly either. Made some high variance decisions.

28 visits
$23,240
Total hours: 157 hours
Hourly: $148/hr
Hands: 7850

2/5

1. Villain in this hand, very little reads. All I know is that last orbit he straddled and I saw him donk into someone. That alone is enough to make me think he's at least somewhat splashy. Villain saw me raise LP last orbit as well. EP Limps, Villain limps behind MP, I iso to $32 on btn , BB calls, EP folds, Villain back raises to $105. $500 effective. My read was that he didn't believe me (raising two times LP) and that he wouldn't be too strong limping behind a limp. I jam, he calls and holds.

Math in my head at the time. Amount of dead money in the pot is around $175ish. My shoving would be for around $470 and when called I'll probably have 25% equity (so 25 vs 75 - on avg lose 50%). So when called i'm losing around $235. So I need him to fold around 58% here which I thought I had.

Down $500.

2. $500 effective. EP limps, same villain as above limps behind. Short stack jams $50, I have and I think a bit and decide to just flat the $50. EP calls the $50, and villain from above back raises to $200. This is a pretty much spot since he's committed, but with dead money I'm too strong not to jam. I jam, villain calls , and shorty has and JJ holds.

Down $500

3. $500 effective. Two limpers EP, MP iso raises to $20 (which is a pretty small size). Two callers, I call on btn, two limpers call. Flop 6-way. , cks to guy on my right who bets $50, I call, two folds, PFR c/r small to $118. Guy on my right calls (short stack, only $65 left after), and I call. Turn PFR jams all-in, which is like $360ish to me or something. Shorty calls and I fold. PFR shows set of 2's, shorty shows TT and PFR wins.

down $130sih.

4. $500 eff. 1 limper EP, I limp behind , two more limpers behind, BB cks. Flop is ck, I ck, cks around. turn, EP leads $20 into $25, I call, player behind calls, other folds. River , ck, I bet $50 and player IP raises to $200. This is a meh spot. I really figured he would bet any gutter/OESD on the flop, so he doesn't have a straight imo. He could have slow played Tx here. I tnak and call, he shows 222 for two's full.

-$230sih

5. $500 eff. CO raises to $25, I call in BB. I c/c $40, turn :5s; ck/ck, river I lead $65 into like $135ish. he raises me to $200. This is a weird spot and makes no sense. I highly doubt he cks back strong on such a drawy turn. Only 222 makes sense here an dhe might not even bet flop. I call and he shows into a bluff here, which is also kinda weird. I think he can just call.

up $250ish

6. $800 effective. I have in BB. Several limps around, SB (kinda tightish) raises to $30. This is small for him. If he had a monster he's for sure pumping this more given the number of limps and being OOP. That being said his range is still pretty tight I think, TT+, KJ+, AJ+ kinda stuff. I should probably fold or 3b here. I call. Several calls behind.

Flop is , he bets $105 into the field, I call, rest fold. Turn brick he bets $240ish, leaving around $360 behind on river. I was trying to figure out if this was a jam or fold spot, or if I could call.

I decide to call. My logic being:
1. If he has a FD he's going to b/c a turn jam, but will possibly bluff a river brick.
2. If he has an overpair/AK he might check a river flush.
3. If he has AJ/AQ type stuff, he might bluff shove a river flush.
So mostly it's whether or not he bluffs more wtih AJ/AQ stuff on a flush, than him not bluffing a river brick if I just call.

I call, river is and he jams the remaining $360ish into an $850ish or so pot. I call and he shows

Down $750

I've kind of made a mental sticky to respect people who backraise, especially if you are perceived as active.

Went to woodbine today, and played meh ok. Was up $230ish but should have been up at least $800-900. Made one pretty bad stack off.

Last few sessions I'm noticing that when I'm being very active, I'm having a hard time getting away from hands to aggression in spots that I normally can find a fold if I'm being tighter.

29 visits
$23,470
Total hours: 164
Hourly: $143
Hands: 8200

Played all 2/5 today, here are some of the bigger hands.

1. very early in session. UTG straddles ($350 effective), very active. Seen him 3b low pockets before, and call 3b wide. Type that defends all his blinds etc. I open $35 HJ with , he repops on straddle to $60. Stacks make this a weird spot, I decide to jam expecting him to be wide, and can likely fold over cards. He calls

Down $350

2. Two limps, I isolate to $30 CO with , both limpers call. Flop comes , ck, ck, I cbet $35 into $90, first limper calls, other folds. Turn and I decide it's a decent spot to run a triple, as his flop peeling to my small bet is gutters, Qx and some weak Ax that might even fold to triple. Turn I bet $90 into $160 he calls. River I jam $350ish and he folds.

Up $200

Hands 3 and 4 are two spots I should get away from, but was probably playing like 30/26 full ring. Opening a ton, and in EP as well (cause I was getting some hands EP).

3. Open to $25 UTG+2, UTG+3 calls, all folds. Flop is I bet $40 he calls. Turn I bet $105 and he raises to $250ish ($200 behind). With how I had been playing I figured he could have some Jxss here, or some other FD. I jam and he calls . This spot is close, I should maybe get away from it but hard to say.

down $500ish

4. This hand was the worst, and purely came down to me playing SUPER aggro (had raised on button lik elast 4 orbits), and me not believing the narrow range villain was repping (AA only). Straddle on, another limp, I iso on btn to $37. SB ($800 effective) 3b me to $105. I 4b to $190 and he makes it $390 reasonably quick.

His timing messed me up. I really didn't think he would 5b AA that quickly, and given I had an ace I just wasn't believing. I tank a bit and jam and run into AA.

In retrospect, I need to start believing ppl, regardless of how crazy I'm playing and find some folds.

Down $800.


5. These two hands were both vs same villain. I raised UTG QQ to $30 (effective $1500), villain in MP 3b me to $80, I call. I c/c flop 3/4 pot and fold turn to 3/4 pot.

An hour or so later, straddle on. I raise UTG to $35. UTG+1 calls, same villain above sq to $105 ($710 effective). I decide he's making a play again and I flat OOP. UTG+1 folds. Flop I c/c $150. Turn I ck, he jams $450ish and I snap call. He tables and I win.

Up $750ish.


I don't how I played, but I think I could have found a way to win around $600-700 more easily with a bit better play.

30 visits
22,970
Total hours: 170.5 hours
Hourly: $134.7
Hands: 8525
Estimated winrate (assuming avg BB of $6): 44.9bb/100

Went to woodbine today and once again didn't play my best. I've been making a few more mistakes the last few sessions. Either that or it's all variance catching up to me, which is also possible.

Was down about $500 in 6.5 hours. Definitely variance has been settling in with regards to hitting sets last few sessions. Also it was one of those sessions where ALL of my big pairs were OOP, which isn't ideal.

Here are some of the bigger hands, all 2/5.


1. $500 eff. Villain is playing SUPER aggro. Online player for sure, opening for raises at least 25% of time. cbetting around 80% from whath I can tell, if not more.

One limp. vill opens CO $35. I 3b in BB to $135, fold, villain jams pretty quickly $500, $365 for me to call. Based on his timing it just felt like 99-QQ,AQ,AK but not really AA/KK.

I need around 37% to call. After stoving it I only have around 32.5%. I was close, but I ended up folding. He had TT.


2. VALUE TOWN!

EP limps, MP limps, BTN limps, SB fold, I'm in BB with and check. $800 effective.

pot :22, checks around.
turn I check, EP makes it $17, fold, Btn calls, I c/r hard to $65.
EP tanks a while, and eventually calls. BTN tanks a while as well and also eventually calls.

Assumption: Given two FD's are out I really expected someone to re-pop here if they were very strong. Plan is to bet hard on a brick river.

river. This is an interestin river, cause now I have two pair. I bet $165 into around $220ish. EP tanks and calls, and BTN tanks and is like "god.. you have 56... but I have to call".. and calls A5 for straight. EP had set... severely value towned myself!


3. $500 eff. This was my worst hand for sure. Raise UTG+1, $35 iso over one limp and dead money from a post. LP tightish kinda player calls on BTN.

Flop - I bet $45 and he calls.
Turn - I check and he bets $135. This sizing through me off. I really didnt' think he had many flushes in his range (JTss, QJss - might raise flop. Kxss might raise flop some % of time. I also didn't think he'd ram a flush quite this hard. I call.
River: - I check and he jams $330ish. Weird runout cause I chop wtih Ax now. Given he's tight I didn't think he'd show up with a lot of low flushes so I was discounting flulshes a lot. I was somewhat worried about AK. Thought he could have JT/QJ stuff. Ended up calling.
Villain shows for a boat, owned.

In retrospect, tight players just can't pull the trigger in this spot. on the turn yes, but not the river. Should be an easy fold.


4. Triple barrel bluff:

$500 eff. I raised EP, LP calls. I triple barreled board, and my river jam got SNAPPPED by . If he's snapping here, then my read that he could find a fold o nriver with Ax was way off. Also I hate his snap, cause it gives off WAY too much information.

Originally Posted by griffey24

1. $500 eff. Villain is playing SUPER aggro. Online player for sure, opening for raises at least 25% of time. cbetting around 80% from whath I can tell, if not more.

One limp. vill opens CO $35. I 3b in BB to $135
...

Fine/std.

Originally Posted by griffey24

2. VALUE TOWN!

EP limps, MP limps, BTN limps, SB fold, I'm in BB with and check. $800 effective.
...

Results notwithstanding, I don't hate your line or the reasoning behind it. My issue with the turn is more GTO-based. I think this hand is just strong enough to lead out for thin value/protection. Our range has SO much spades/5x/62/etc type stuff that I think c/r'ing 3PMK is a mistake. Also, as you learned, we are often drawing dead.

As played, river is fine/std.

Originally Posted by griffey24

3. $500 eff. This was my worst hand for sure. Raise UTG+1, $35 iso over one limp and dead money from a post. LP tightish kinda player calls on BTN.
...

"Tightish kinda player" can mean all sorts of things, but turn is a money burn against pretty much every "tightish kinda" live player type I can think of. Then again, I know 2/5 plays a lot more aggressively than my games, so maybe like floats and "thin" value bets actually happen in these games among tight players.

Originally Posted by griffey24

4. Triple barrel bluff:

$500 eff. I raised EP, LP calls.
...

I mean, obviously if your read was that he can fold Ax on the river, then obviously firing the third barrel is fine, but I rarely do it here. His range is super thin, he doesn't really have much incentive to fold, and he has plenty reason to think we missed. We might very well have different images, but given Hand 2, I'm sure you have your doubters among you :P

Unfortunately, given the runout and card removal, there are very few combos of hands that we beat when this goes chk/chk, but such is life.

I had a recent session where I kept value-towning myself on the premise that better hands had to bet or raise...I was wrong a lot.

Originally Posted by baudib

I had a recent session where I kept value-towning myself on the premise that better hands had to bet or raise...I was wrong a lot.

Haha yah for sure. The brutal part is, given effective stacks i think if I overbet jammed river I would get them both to fold their hands!

Live Play: GTO vs Exploitable

After my last few sessions I've been thinking I need to tweak my decision making in live games. This is mostly because my live games are 'computerized tables', and thus I have a minute to make a decision.

Now - You'd think decisions would be easier live. I'm playing one table instead of like 10 at once, and I've had tons of practice making quick decisions online.

GTO - Online:

The difficulty I'm finding is that online, I generally lean towards playing somewhat close to GTO. The players are better, and thus also playing closer to GTO themselves. The games are getting tougher, player frequencies are getting better and I think playing closer to GTO serves me best online.

Exploitable - Live:

Now live is a different story. Players have HORRIBLE frequencies. Some ppl are bluffing WAY too much in certain spots (or "value" jamming for protection a wider range than would otherwise call bets), and some ppl are bluffing WAY not enough. Given these poor frequencies, I think playing GTO in live games is leaving a lot of money on the table.

Assuming GTO is not best for live games, the workflow for coming to a decision takes a bit longer than just knowing what % I need to defend and reacting accordingly. This is tougher with 60 second constraint.

Potential Decision making process for live:

Note: This is for spots that are out of the ordinary or what I perceive to be close decisions / difficult spots.

1. Is villain tilting / getting frustrated / consistently losing hands?

If YES -> 1a)
If NO -> 1b)

1a) If villain is tilting. Is villain on average CAPABLE of making a move / big bluff?

If YES -> CALL
If NO -> Close decision. Lean towards GTO.
If Unknown -> Lean towards Not capable, and lean towards GTO.

1b) If villain NOT tilting. Is villain on average CAPABLE of making a move / big bluff?

IF YES -> Close decision. Lean towards GTO.
If NO -> FOLD, even if repping narrow range.
If unknown -> Lean towards Not capable, and lean towards GTO.

The most prominent path above I would say is a player NOT capable of making a big move, and who is not tilting, takes a line that reps a verrry narrow range. In this spot, I believe on average we should just give them credit (until proven otherwise) and fold. Many ppl just can't pull the trigger in big pots, and live players show up with unexpected hands (strong - unexpected hands with weird lines you don't expect).

Thanks for the comments surviva!

haven't posted in this blog in a while, mostly cause i haven't played live in a while!

Originally Posted by griffey24

Thanks for the comments surviva!

No problem, glad to see your kicking ass and taking names.

Just to clarify on Hand 2, even if vbetting 3PMK on the turn is too thin, I still think c/f is best. There are just too many better combos of hands to run a play with here (since Q3 has such shitty outs against continuing ranges), and I find that being OOP with a range of {the bottom 90% of all hands possible} is a bad spot to earn a reputation because it is *very* difficult to capitalize on.

I would be doing my own game a lot of good if I were more selective about which combos to run plays with when I'm in the blinds in family pots.

Originally Posted by surviva316

No problem, glad to see your kicking ass and taking names.

Just to clarify on Hand 2, even if vbetting 3PMK on the turn is too thin, I still think c/f is best. There are just too many better combos of hands to run a play with here (since Q3 has such shitty outs against continuing ranges), and I find that being OOP with a range of {the bottom 90% of all hands possible} is a bad spot to earn a reputation because it is *very* difficult to capitalize on.

I would be doing my own game a lot of good if I were more selective about which combos to run plays with when I'm in the blinds in family pots.

Just to clarify, I'm definitely not value c/r Q3 on that turn!

I mean I suppose it's kind of merged. I do expect to get called by worse and better sometimes. Mostly it's a bluff though and I think I can react appropriately on different river cards to continue my bluff profitably or bluff catch if needed.

Originally Posted by griffey24

Just to clarify, I'm definitely not value c/r Q3 on that turn!

I mean I suppose it's kind of merged. I do expect to get called by worse and better sometimes. Mostly it's a bluff though and I think I can react appropriately on different river cards to continue my bluff profitably or bluff catch if needed.

Oh, I knew you were c/r'ing as a bluff, haha. I meant that you can arguably lead for value and save our bluffs for hands with less SDV and more outs against continuing ranges. But even if you feel that LEADING for value (haha) is too thin, then c/f is probably still the best of our checking options (even though I like your play in a vacuum).

And note that I've upgraded your play from "I don't hate it" to "I like it" once I put more thought into the results. BTN is just the MUBSiest motherfucker on the planet, so the fact that he called instead of shoved had nothing to do with the fact that he feels comfortable flatting nutty hands; his idea of nutty hands is literally just "the nuts." As for EP, the fact that he flatted doesn't much change my mind about the assumption that most people do NOT flat nutty hands here for fear of giving the button a good price and/or seeing an ugly river. Sure, this hand proves that sometimes they do, but we can weight against it heavily.

This was just the absolute worst case scenario in terms of opponents' holdings, how they chose to play their cards, and the runout.

Only reason I'm against the play is because of how it affects your range as a whole.