2013: Make or break

I think I'd replace one point of your bluff catching rules.

1. How strong does he think his range is? (I would replace this with does he think I will fold. If he thinks you will fold is already based on other factors you've already mentioned.)

and I like specifically comparing it to

2. How strong is his range?

As well as the other two points you made.

I find that this kind of analysis is very useful. The more 1 > 2, the more inclined I am to call.

For example, lets say we are playing an opponent heads up that checks back Ace high. Opponent has triple barreled a run out of Q72 flop, A turn, T river. In this situation its unlikely that opponent realizes that because he checks behind Aces on the flop that his range is weaker than it appears in this situation. This would be a situation where I would call down the 3 barrel a lot.

Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

I think I'd replace one point of your bluff catching rules.

1. How strong does he think his range is? (I would replace this with does he think I will fold. If he thinks you will fold is already based on other factors you've already mentioned.)

and I like specifically comparing it to

2. How strong is his range?

As well as the other two points you made.

I find that this kind of analysis is very useful. The more 1 > 2, the more inclined I am to call.

For example, lets say we are playing an opponent heads up that checks back Ace high. Opponent has triple barreled a run out of Q72 flop, A turn, T river. In this situation its unlikely that opponent realizes that because he checks behind Aces on the flop that his range is weaker than it appears in this situation. This would be a situation where I would call down the 3 barrel a lot.

Thanks for the points ISF. That's an interesting example of a spot where villains perception of their own range strength is much greater than their true range strength.

Though I can't think of many other spots where ppl have such a wide gap between the two, for 1>2.

I've definitely seen ppl try to run river bluffs in spots where the flop is Axx and they check back as PFR (3b pot or single raised pot), call a turn bet and then go crazy raising on a river K , clearly thinking "I would play KK exactly the same way", when that is a small part of their turn calling range overall.

I think that's also something I've been noticing with my small bet sizing OOP. People calling down very small bets and then bluffing on rivers when I check. They think their range include strong hands or hands that would bet big, but in practice if they aren't putting in a raise over two small bets, they will likely more often than not go for SD on the river. So when they bet, their range is a lot weaker than they think it is.