2013: Make or break

Had my first visit to woodbine of 2015. My goal is to go 15 times this year. The first didn't go particularly well, down $1350. First losing session in a long while!

Didn't play that well, but didn't play too poorly either. Made some high variance decisions.

28 visits
$23,240
Total hours: 157 hours
Hourly: $148/hr
Hands: 7850

2/5

1. Villain in this hand, very little reads. All I know is that last orbit he straddled and I saw him donk into someone. That alone is enough to make me think he's at least somewhat splashy. Villain saw me raise LP last orbit as well. EP Limps, Villain limps behind MP, I iso to $32 on btn , BB calls, EP folds, Villain back raises to $105. $500 effective. My read was that he didn't believe me (raising two times LP) and that he wouldn't be too strong limping behind a limp. I jam, he calls and holds.

Math in my head at the time. Amount of dead money in the pot is around $175ish. My shoving would be for around $470 and when called I'll probably have 25% equity (so 25 vs 75 - on avg lose 50%). So when called i'm losing around $235. So I need him to fold around 58% here which I thought I had.

Down $500.

2. $500 effective. EP limps, same villain as above limps behind. Short stack jams $50, I have and I think a bit and decide to just flat the $50. EP calls the $50, and villain from above back raises to $200. This is a pretty much spot since he's committed, but with dead money I'm too strong not to jam. I jam, villain calls , and shorty has and JJ holds.

Down $500

3. $500 effective. Two limpers EP, MP iso raises to $20 (which is a pretty small size). Two callers, I call on btn, two limpers call. Flop 6-way. , cks to guy on my right who bets $50, I call, two folds, PFR c/r small to $118. Guy on my right calls (short stack, only $65 left after), and I call. Turn PFR jams all-in, which is like $360ish to me or something. Shorty calls and I fold. PFR shows set of 2's, shorty shows TT and PFR wins.

down $130sih.

4. $500 eff. 1 limper EP, I limp behind , two more limpers behind, BB cks. Flop is ck, I ck, cks around. turn, EP leads $20 into $25, I call, player behind calls, other folds. River , ck, I bet $50 and player IP raises to $200. This is a meh spot. I really figured he would bet any gutter/OESD on the flop, so he doesn't have a straight imo. He could have slow played Tx here. I tnak and call, he shows 222 for two's full.

-$230sih

5. $500 eff. CO raises to $25, I call in BB. I c/c $40, turn :5s; ck/ck, river I lead $65 into like $135ish. he raises me to $200. This is a weird spot and makes no sense. I highly doubt he cks back strong on such a drawy turn. Only 222 makes sense here an dhe might not even bet flop. I call and he shows into a bluff here, which is also kinda weird. I think he can just call.

up $250ish

6. $800 effective. I have in BB. Several limps around, SB (kinda tightish) raises to $30. This is small for him. If he had a monster he's for sure pumping this more given the number of limps and being OOP. That being said his range is still pretty tight I think, TT+, KJ+, AJ+ kinda stuff. I should probably fold or 3b here. I call. Several calls behind.

Flop is , he bets $105 into the field, I call, rest fold. Turn brick he bets $240ish, leaving around $360 behind on river. I was trying to figure out if this was a jam or fold spot, or if I could call.

I decide to call. My logic being:
1. If he has a FD he's going to b/c a turn jam, but will possibly bluff a river brick.
2. If he has an overpair/AK he might check a river flush.
3. If he has AJ/AQ type stuff, he might bluff shove a river flush.
So mostly it's whether or not he bluffs more wtih AJ/AQ stuff on a flush, than him not bluffing a river brick if I just call.

I call, river is and he jams the remaining $360ish into an $850ish or so pot. I call and he shows

Down $750