Turn C-R semi-bluff vs. nit's double barrel
I had a hand a few months ago that totally changed my thinking on certain spots. I had check-raised on flop with a massive draw in a multiway pot, and a pretty good player called, and then called with an extremely marginal hand when I overbet jammed brick. I got there on the river, but he showed me how weak he had called off and it shocked me. He said he knew that I couldn't have an overpair because I'd always squeeze preflop and that I only have draws. I'm not sure I like his calloff, but I realized that he was right and that my range in that spot IS almost all draws. We can try to balance sets with semi-bluffs on certain textures but there aren't many combos of sets so I suppose it is a problem if decent regs know what you're doing.
This led me to re-examine my C-R ranges on certain boards, as well as donking ranges. Because live games feature so many multiway pots, even 7-9-way raised pots, having well-constructed donking ranges is very important.
But trying to balance C-R, donking and c/c ranges when we call OOP is extremely difficult, and it led me to almost eliminate a check-raising range in so many spots. Balancing per se isn't really the issue, I think that in games with so many passive players, their betting ranges are so freaking strong that we have more implied odds than fold equity with draws.
Anyway, I've been putting more check-raises into my flop ranges, but still not enough in my turn range. And almost all of my turn check-raises are for value; against good players, I almost never check-raise the turn, instead preferring to lead more turns. (Somewhere in this time frame, I got into a discussion on here with M2M and Bikes about why raising turns is bad 100 BBs effective, and this influenced a great deal of my thinking as well. M2M and Bikes are brilliant, btw. Love their feedback on all hand analysis. But since then I've been playing deeper much more often, going from buying in for 100-150 BBs to always buying in for 200-250)
Anyway, I don't check-raise bluff turns very often, but I thought this was a good spot.
I have
from SB in 4-way raised pot. Villain is a non-descript weak-tight reg. Our history is almost non-existent considering how often we play together, which is a result of him being so nitty-passive. He raised to $15 from MP (5-handed) and starts hand with around $350.
Flop ($60ish):
Hero checks 1 check, villain bets $40, 1 fold. I tanked a bit here and called, 1 fold.
Turn ($140):
Hero checks, villain bets $50, Hero raises to $150, villain folds.
Despite weak turn bet, I'm 99% certain his range is AQ+ here as he almost never double barrels light and he is folding all of it except sets.
Thursday session: 6 hours +$130
Friday session: 12 hours +530
Total: 54 hours +$175
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