I haven't posted in forever but I figured I'd make a detailed hand post just for fun.

First off, I don't win showdowns. This is kind of normal since I play a higher variance style but I'm pretty sure I've been generally running cold in '08. Here are some stats since April :



This is a hand that illustrates what I try to do in spots in spots where I choose higher variance routes.

This hand may seem easy, but I think it’s a spot where plenty of taggish regs miss value on the turn. Let’s go through the hand step-by-step :

Seat 1: FloppyDuc sits out
Seat 3: HERO ($340 in chips)
Seat 4: Marsdawg ($292 in chips)
Seat 5: lurcher01 ($95.56 in chips)
Seat 6: Jwmoon ($81.24 in chips)
Seat 7: ennitti ($200 in chips)
Seat 8: LETS_BUST ($199.75 in chips)
Seat 9: BIZZBUZZ ($253 in chips)
Seat 10: Damboland ($218.50 in chips)
Damboland: posts small blind $1
HERO: posts big blind $2
----- HOLE CARDS -----
dealt to HERO
Marsdawg: folds
lurcher01: folds
lurcher01 sits out
Jwmoon: calls $2 (ok so this is rarely very strong! No strong reads but usually this weak open-limp b.s. is small pp’s Ax or SC’s)
ennitti: calls $2
LETS_BUST: folds
BIZZBUZZ: folds
Damboland: folds
HERO: checks
----- FLOP -----
HERO: bets $5 (yawn)
Jwmoon: calls $5


OK. Let’s put villain on a range of hands. The important thing to do here is to assume villains are playing somewhat logically, i.e. protecting their big hands, not calling with total air, etc.

So his calling range imo looks something like :

-all mid connectors between 5x and 9x (56, 57, 67, 78, 89)
-weak made hands (4x, 8x and Tx)
-small PP’s that just wanna peel a turn and see if I continue
-strong straight draws that can make the nuts (79, J9, QJ, Q9)

When making this bet, the important question to ask yourself is “which turns can I profitably bet for value?” The answer lies in how strongly we weight his range to each of the above-mentioned categories. In this case, since I’m holding a ten, we have to discount the combinations of Tx, therefore making it less likely we’re value-towning ourselves if the turn bricks off. So I plan on betting most A and K turns. Obv I,ll be betting when I improve to 2 pr or trips and I’ll be bet-folding most mid-cards (things like 5, 6 or 7; if villain semi-bluff shoves then I’ll tip my cap to him… most players at these limits are loose and weak so I just expect to call me down)

ennitti: folds
----- TURN -----
HERO: bets $14

An interesting question is what to do when faced with a raise on this turn… Except in this spot. I’d fold to a raise here almost 100% of the time since most players have a default mentality of “he bet and A hi board, he must have something!” so they’ll rarely raise light.
lurcher01 sits back
Jwmoon: calls $14… the cool thing about the A on the turn is that it doesn’t really change anything in villain’s range since he now may have reason to believe he has sick implied odds with any str8 draw after I 2-barelled when the A hit the turn.

One consideration is that QJ just picked up a double-gutter and a hand like QJs is def a decent part of an unknown’s MP limping range. The plan is gonna usually be to check-evaluate the river. We’re not very worried at this point about villain having Ax since that would’ve been a total random float and we’d expect him to raise the turn when he made 2 pair with aces up.

----- RIVER -----
HERO: checks Wow… what an awesome card. Now we’re pretty sure villain didn’t hit top pair on the turn. The question is whether or not to value-bet. I chose to check for the following reasons :

-bluffs will usually put out a lot of money to get me to fold, so I profit
-I can’t be sure how much money I’ll be able to extract from a hand like 78, so v betting would be VERY thin in this spot obv. Also I don’t expect a random villain to turn a hand like 4x or 7x into a bluff and put me into a tough spot.
-the hands that will feel compelled to bet when checked to (straight draws i.e. air) greatly outnumber the made hands that will pay me off (since I am holding a ten), so I think the value of check-call is far greater than the value of bet-fold

Jwmoon: bets $60.24 and is all-in
HERO: calls $60.24
----- SHOW DOWN -----
Jwmoon: shows (A Pair of Aces, Queen high)
HERO: shows (Two Pairs, Aces and Tens, Nine high)
HERO collected $162.48 from Main pot

So this hand worked out pretty well. I see a lot of regs who auto-check this turn, thinking "I don't wanna build a pot vs this donkey's Ax that just sucked out on me". I think both the results for the hand and the ranges I assigned villain's holdings show why it's probably more profitable to bet this turn, even OOP.

I Over the next few days, I’ll try and post some other hands, both that were awesome and that didn’t work out so well, with detailed analysis.