Poker Stars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (4 handed) - Poker Stars Converter Tool from http://flopturnriver.com/

Button ($5.87)
Hero (SB) ($8.18)
BB ($2.56)
UTG ($5.17)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A, 3
UTG raises $0.15, 1 fold, Hero raises $0.43, 1 fold, UTG calls $0.30

Flop: ($0.95) A, Q, 3 (2 players)
Hero ??

Hand history from yesterday can't remember any specific reads. Villain's stats - 29/26/60/67/0/0/- over 36 hands.

HUD layout - vpip/pfr/steal%/Fsteal%/3bet/cbet/fold to cbet

So I've decided to give villains slightly stronger ranges than I think they actually had when I'm reviewing hands for two reasons. 1) It makes the ranges easier to work with. And, 2) if I have 50% equity vs a stronger range than villain actually has then I can be sure it's a +EV value bet if I add in a few of the weaker hands.

Back to the HH.

My preflop 3betting range is: QQ+,AKs,A5s-A2s,AKo

Villain's flop continuing range: QQ,ATs+,KJs,ATo+

So I worked out all of my +EV value bets. Here they are in order of strength according to their flop equity.

AA
QQ
AK
A3s

It's weird that vs villain's continuing range AKs has ~62% equity, AK has 59% and A3s only has 54%. One-pair has more equity than two-pair.

Anyway that leaves my checking range looking like this:

A5s
A4s
A2s
KK

If I check, I expect villain to bet a range of: QQ,AJs+,KJs-KTs,AJo+

A5s my strongest checking hand only has 35% equity vs that range, whereas A3s has 53%. I think betting A3s on the flop leaves my checking range too weak and villain can happily bet AJ AK unimproved for three streets. I don't have any reason to think this guy is going to be attacking my checking range here in a 3bet pot, so it's not really an exploitative adjustment, I just think A3s is going to win me more money in my checking range than in my betting range.


What do you guys think?