I still haven't had as much time to put in a high volume of hands due to work, I just got into a relationship (she loves poker), exercise, and I often like to play live, however, I have been able to put in, on average, about 1300 hands a week. It's been about 3 and a half months since I started $10NL and I am very happy with my progress and ready to graduate to $25NL. Since starting $10NL, I put in about 20k hands with a win-rate @ about 24bb/100 (12ptBB/100) and my bankroll is sitting @ $780.

I've put in a lot of study on FTR, reading books, listening to podcasts, and I recently joined Deuces Cracked. Truth be told, despite some moving up the micro stakes, I still often wonder how much success is based on poor villain play versus my actual good play. It seems like most of the time I'm just doing a good job staying out of trouble, picking my spots, and waiting for some fish to get out of line and do something stupid. Sometimes I wonder how long I can continue to find fish or what will happen if the fish dry up? Will I adapt or will it just turn into a nit fest or competition to outguess or out level my opponents? Fortunately, most of the videos I've watched @ the different stakes from $25NL to $200NL still seem to have a healthy amount of fish or at least villains with tendencies that can be exploited. I'll try to avoid getting too far ahead of myself though, and just be happy I've found opponents I seem to be able to exploit for now and hope that there are enough at the next level to continue to be successful.

At $10NL, I felt like I did a much better job of putting opponents on ranges. This is such an important skill no matter what stakes so you know how to proceed forward with the hand to maximize your expectation or simply know when it's best to get out. Sometimes, I can't put my opponent on a good range, but I can ELIMINATE a good range based on the line they take in conjunction with board texture and my read - that is an equally good skill to have that helps extract value or bluff. Although, I am still often guilty of trying to peg villains as generally "weak" or "strong" - not that it's bad to do that, but sometimes I get too satisfied with just that and not going the extra step of quantifying it to specific hands. Next, I started delving into Poker Stove @ $10NL, but I probably used it too generally comparing my hand to villains' pre-flop call or raise percentage instead of some specific hand ranges post flop. I definitely want to improve on both of those concepts in $25NL. I feel like if I can maintain the skills I've developed and continue improving in those areas and just in general, I'll give myself a good chance moving forward.

It's interesting to me that when my bankroll was around $650, I decided to go from playing 3 tables at once to 4 tables at once and to put in a few more hours of play. My win-rate at that point was 27bb/100 (13.5ptBB/100) and it did a nosedive down as I played about 2000 hands of break even poker. I think the extra table really detracted from my note taking and player reads, plus I think the longer sessions cost me some money as I was tilting in ways I hadn't noticed before such as being more tired mentally, missing out on more information, trying to make up a win, or getting more frustrated when the extra table and time wasn't translating to moving up faster. But, I also think it's important to be able to slowly calibrate to the most tables and longest sessions one can play while still playing close to their best. So, I've stuck with it in hopes that I'll get more comfortable and efficient with more practice. These observations just reinforced my opinion that excessive multi-tabling really detracts from your ability to play optimally and learn the game.

$25NL is usually considered the last "micro" stakes before the "small" stakes of $50NL. It also feels like possibly the first stake where the money on the table could start to become meaningful to the average Joe or Jane. This stake has an odd small blind structure being more than half as small as the big blind. I could actually see folding more often in the small blind since it's 2.5x more instead of the usual 2x. The buy-in is also 2.5x the previous stake instead of the usual 2x. I would expect this to mean a larger jump in skill level, but we'll see. I'm going to try to reserve my expectations and let the play speak for itself.

To move up from $25NL to $50NL, I'll need to win 30 buy-ins:

$25 times 30 equals $750 (profit)
$750 (profit) plus $750 (my current bankroll) equals $1500 (amount I need)
$50 (next level) times 30 (required buy-ins per my bankroll management rules) equals $1500 (amount I need)

As always, everything will take care of itself eventually IF I'm able to consistently win.

Here's my $10NL graph from HEM:


Here's my overall graph:


I plan to start playing and keep playing $25NL until I drop down to $500 (20 $25NL buy-ins) at which point I'll drop back down to $10NL or until I rise up to $1500 at which point I'll move up to $50NL. One caveat: I've been moving up stakes when I have 30 buy-ins for the next level, but at some point, I may consider adding more buy-ins like 35, 40, or 50. If I am fortunate to be in a position to move up, the two factors that will most heavily weigh in on that consideration are my win-rate plus my perception of the change in skill level. For example, if I'm beating any level consistently (large sample) for 20bb/100 (10ptBB/100), then it shouldn't be a big deal to move up because the competition likely won't increase enough to offset that win rate. But, if I'm only beating a level 1bb/100 or 4bb/100, then I may want even more cushion because a noticeable increase in skill could easily wipe out a small win-rate. Ultimately, it'll be a feel situation.


How High Can You Get?
Level 1 ($ 2 NL) - 12/13/2008 @ $100 -> Winrate for level: 24bb/100 or 12ptBB/100 over 11k hands (As of 01/22/2009)
Level 2 ($ 5 NL) - 01/22/2009 @ $150 -> Winrate for level: 36bb/100 or 18ptBB/100 over 8k hands (As of 03/03/2009)
Level 3 ($10 NL) - 03/03/2009 @ $300 -> Winrate for level: 24bb/100 or 12ptBB/100 over 20k hands (As of 06/18/2009)
Level 4 ($25 NL) - 06/18/2009 @ $750
Level 5 ($50 NL) - ??? @ $1500
Overall Winrate 27bb/100 or 13.5ptBB/100 over 40k hands (As of 06/18/2009)