Hand 3
Poker Stars, $0.02/$0.05, $0.01 ante No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $5.25 (105 bb)
BB: $5.21 (104.2 bb) {22/16, 75% fold to CB, 18% donk, 5% 3b, 0% raise CB, fold to steal in BB 72%, steal 25%, 400 hands. It's worth noting he's probably not positionally aware as his VPIP from EP, CO, and BU are all the same (24%)}
UTG: $14.14 (282.8 bb)
MP: $9.74 (194.8 bb)
CO: $9.93 (198.6 bb)
Hero (BTN): $13.16 (263.2 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with K Q
3 folds, Hero raises to $0.15, SB folds, BB calls $0.10

Flop: ($0.38) A 7 T (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets or checks

Kind of a weakish reg type of player, mostly seems to be playing an ABC fit-or-fold strategy. Relatively passive preflop.

I think when we do bet here it should be on the smaller side, closer to like 60% pot just because it's a pretty dry board and this is the type of board I would expect to get a lot of folds from this type of player on.

Opponent's range breakdown
I think he's got something like this for calling pre:

JJ-22,AQs-A2s,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,98s,87s,76s,AQo-A2o,KTo+,QTo+,JTo

Obviously he's going to C/C all his top pairs. As for his stronger hands like two pair and sets, this is obviously an assumption laden approximation but we'll say for simplicity's sake he donks 66% of his sets, check raises 33% of his sets, and donks 22% of his two pairs, and C/Cs the rest. So his checking range now looks like, or thereabouts:

JJ,99-88,66-22,TdTh,7h7c,AQs-AJs,A9s-A8s,A6s-A2s,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,98s,87s,76s,AdTd,Ad7d,AQo-AJo,A9o-A8o,A6o-A2o,KTo+,QTo+,JTo,AdTh,AdTs,AsTh,AcTd,AcTh,AcTs,Ad 7h,Ad7c,As7d,As7h,As7c,Ac7d (255 combos)

So we assumed he's playing a fit or fold strategy, which means he's pretty likely to just fold out his second pairs, gutters, and complete air, giving him a continuing range of:

TdTh,7h7c,AQs-AJs,A9s-A8s,A6s-A2s,98s,AdTd,Ad7d,AQo-AJo,A9o-A8o,A6o-A2o,AdTh,AdTs,AsTh,AcTd,AcTh,AcTs,Ad7h,Ad7c,As7d,A s7h,As7c,Ac7d (125 combos)

Which means we have 49% fold equity.

He's C/Ring 1.6% of his range.



Turn cards

1. (8.5%) (4) J - gives us the nuts
2. (12.5%) (6) K, Q - gives us 2nd pair
3. (19%) (9) A, T, 7 - pairs the board
4. (60%) (28) 9, 8, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2 - don't really do anything interesting

Group 1: Obviously wanting to barrel these, he's not going to fold his top pair a lot to another barrel
Group 2: Given his continuing range, we want to check these and hope for a cheap showdown
Group 3: Never really good cards to barrel with air, especially not the A in this case as it'll give him trips a ton of the time.
Group 4: Probably not great cards to barrel as they don't change much and aren't perceived as scare cards etc. etc.






~~~~~~will finish later