I don't keep track of results that much, I just look over them every 20 sngs or so to see how my ROI is doing and so forth

I lost a few SNGs today so my ROI went down to 22%
I think one of my leaks is that I call with a draw without any intention of taking it away on a later street, so I'm playing the draw for the pot odds + implied odds by itself

I have had almost no variance outside of today, I'm never more than a few buy-ins down. In fact I only had variance because the competition had similar skill, most of the people who joined my games were winning players.

Another leak I have is I probably don't use the stop and go or the go and go in correct times. Obviously, when I get short-stacked against an agressive opponent I have to start making these moves or I'll blind away waiting for a hand. But I find that I'm shoving 3x the pot with ace high or with a draw. Since my opponents hit the flop 30% of the time and could possibly call with any pair, I think that's an EV- move.

I also got it in against trips, but that's more of a cooler. I can't expect my opponent to have trips every time. KK9 board good to shove 3x pot into? He's got a 9 or trips less than 30% of the time... but I lose my stack almost all the time.


let's consider the scenario where I have two overcards and he'll call with any pair (but fold better/worse high cards)
I win x when I shove 3x into the pot 70% of the time
I win 4x 25% of the rest of the time
I lose 3x 75%

so I win .7x on fold equity
I win .3x sucking out
I lose .675 when he hits a pair
sometimes he'll hold a pocket pair and call as well

hmm it's break-even with two overcards
so definitely not a good move with 1 overcard

but if I attempt this a few times I can do it with top pair as well and hope for action
probably better to bet normally if I have 3x left and to shove two overcards when I have less than that

at around 2x pot left in my stack and i have 1 overcard (an ace or a king)
I win 1x 70% of the time
I win 3x 13% of 30% of the time
I lose 2x 87% of 30% of the time

again, my folding equity is .7x, my suckout equity is 0.12x, my losses to a better hand are .52x
so I should always shove 2x pot when I have at least 3 clean outs
especially if I can get called by smaller overcards + gutshot or similar hands

hmm that also means I can shove KQ on a ATx board if I have less than 2x pot remaining since I have 4 outs and great folding equity
I thought my move was a mistake in that spot, but it actually wasn't because I have great folding equity against bottom pair and a low pp

Comments?