Epiphany + Break

People suck at bet sizing, and understanding why they bet.

Thinking logically. I am someone who talks to ppl that are better than me at poker pretty often, have read alot of poker books, and have read everything on ftr about anything. I still suck at understanding why i bet...but my betsizing is good i think.

So like, take the average fish or even regs at these micro stakes. They dont understand shit about this. Most probably arent reading FTR or 2p2, and of those that do many probably still arent understanding all the shit there is to read. Those that DO understand...move up. So like, what does that mean?



Hero has 76s in the sb, raises to 4x.

BB calls

Flop is 54Tr, hero cbets 3/4 pot...BB shoves 100bbs

What? This is an actual hand i just played today but was too lazy to convert in weaktight. BB shoves over me here. This is absolutely god aweful. If you know why, skip to the moral.

BB shoves as a bluff: im folding to most raises anyway. Bluffing 3x pot or 10x pot is all the same to me. So by shoving here he only maximizes how much he loses when i have 55, 44, TT, 54, or an over pair.

BB shoves for value: This is a pretty dry board, and im raising pretty wide pre. Im folding most things to this bet as well. I have like 9 combos of sets, 9 of two pair, and like, maybe 18 of overpairs that i might call with. Everything else folds.

Seems like a lot of combos...but most of these hands get it in no matter what. So he doesnt gain anything by just shoving . Meanwhile if he raiseda normal bet, i probably float sometimes, call with like AT, KT, QT JT sometimes, call with draws sometimes, and a bunch of other shit thats behind but couldnt call before. So BB gets more value by not shoving if hes doing it for value.

Moral: ppl suck! they dont know why theyre betting or how much they should bet. Its ridiculous really.

Epiphany: We cant use what we know about bet sizing/betting to justify how a villain is going to play. We cant say "well villain 3bet shoved, doing this with TT is retarded so he cant have that..." until we know that villain thinks similarly to us!

Thats not to say that we cant narrow down his range every street or give him one to start with...just that we have to use what we know about villain to do so (ldo) and not what we know about ourselves.

Idk, seems obvious...but its the cause of one of my biggest leaks (spewing when villain takes a retarded line) so i guess its fixed.

In other news, im in the middle of a poker break. 4th of july + dad's birthday means im away from home so my volume just shrunk. Laters