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OP: Make Penneywize Not Suck At Omaha

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  1. #1
    Here's a hand from last night's down session. I think this is incredibly standard for the most part. Both villains are the loose/passive variety common at PLO micros and I haven't seen either get out of line. For the sake of argument (I don't feel like pulling PT3 up and checking for sure atm) just assume each of these guys run something like 35/12.

    $0.05/$0.10 Pot Limit Omaha Hi
    PokerStars
    5 Players
    Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

    Stacks:
    UTG ($9.85)
    CO ($8.26)
    BTN ($5.25)
    Hero (SB) ($10.89)
    BB ($36.32)

    Pre-Flop: ($0.15, 5 players) Hero is SB
    UTG raises to $0.30, 2 folds, Hero raises to $1, BB calls $0.90, UTG calls $0.70

    Flop: ($3, 3 players)
    Hero bets $2.85, BB folds, UTG goes all-in $8.85, $6 to Hero ($7.04)?

    I understand there is practically no way this isn't a call - even against something like a set + straight + flush blockers I am at something like 28% equity. For completeness, I see villain's range being:

    87xx roughly 80% of the time
    sets + FDs about 10% of the time
    two pair + FDs about 10% of the time

    he will also occasionally show up with a real monster like a straight + set or a straight with flush draw blockers (or a straight flush draw) but this is probably only an arbitrarily small percentage of the time, and the equity difference is not too great to have that big of an impact

    against 87xx I have 39.7% equity ProPokerTools.com - Serious tools for serious players
    against sets + FDs I have roughly 30% equity ProPokerTools.com - Serious tools for serious players
    against two pair + FDs I have over 52% equity ProPokerTools.com - Serious tools for serious players
    against straight + straight flush draw (i.e. lots of blockers) I have ~23% equity - so overall not a huge equity difference here ProPokerTools.com - Serious tools for serious players

    Putting all of these together:
    0.8 * 39.7 = 0.24
    0.1 * 52 = 0.05
    0.1 * 30 = 0.03

    Giving me an average equity of roughly 32% against his range. Since the pot is 14.70, and the bet to call is 6.00, I need an average equity of (6.00 / 20.70) 28.9%, so this is a fairly clear cut call.

    I didn't post this hand up to analyze the all-in however (the range + equity bit was more of an exercise for myself more than anything else).

    I am mostly concerned about:
    A: my betsizing pre and
    B: my flop pot sized c-bet.

    any thoughts on the above?
  2. #2
    Well, obviously not long after posting the above hand, I've spent some time reading further on Bug's PLO strategy series and have made a few realizations.

    1) due to the low SPR on the flop, I should be a lot less willing to fold here, especially given the strength of my hand against villain's probable range
    2) villain is definitely pushing a wider range than the one I stated, probably including hands like KcKd6c8d and that type of thing.

    I didn't state any assumptions indicating that he is a thinking player, etc, but even novices have some idea of fold equity and stack to pot ratio - even if they haven't articulated or properly internalized such concepts i.e. "well the pot is so big, he might fold, his c-bet might be automatic, and I still have a draw so WTF IM ARR IN".

    Looking back I believe my intention should have been to c-bet this board and insta call any raise (or shove if this villain doesn't raise enough), rather than humming and hawing over pot odds and analyzing an all-in. Folding anywhere here would probably be a huge leak. Even if both players shoved in front of me I still likely have decent enough equity to call.
  3. #3
    Interesting hand. Villain (BTN) is 88/50 w/ a 25% 3-bet over a tiny sample <20 hands.

    I have two questions - firstly, I'm not entirely sure of this being a great spot for a c-bet. I stand a chance to gain a great deal of equity on the turn which would make my play from that point on more straightforward, and it is probably better not to build a huge pot with non-nutty hand potential. One of the upsides to c-betting is that this opponent is very likely to continue, even with marginal holdings, and I could possibly get value from a currently 'worse' hand, though I will often not know when he actually improves to a better hand on future streets.

    So, to c-bet or not to c-bet? and secondly, once we do c-bet and get raised, what's our play here?

    I believe we can discount AAxx since he did not 3-bet pre which would seem to be a bit of a no-brainer given his stats and position (though, sample size does leave something to be desired).

    So after his flop raise, the top of his range may look like sets, QQxx, 88xx and 33xx, possibly with flush draws. More often he will just have a pair + FD or just a FD, sometimes an inside wrap, two pair, or weakish holdings like Qxxx with an inside straight draw. An arbitrarily small percentage of the time he will have just a pair and mostly be on a bluff (which ironically still has okay equity v. my hand).

    Given the tiny sample size and little knowledge of our opponent it becomes rather difficult to narrow down the probabilities of each holding listed above, and thus hard to estimate our equity here...

    $0.05/$0.10 Pot Limit Omaha Hi
    PokerStars
    6 Players
    Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

    Stacks:
    UTG ($3.85)
    Hero (UTG+1) ($10)
    CO ($17.85)
    BTN ($16.16)
    SB ($5.22)
    BB ($10)

    Pre-Flop: ($0.15, 6 players) Hero is UTG+1
    1 fold, Hero raises to $0.35, 1 fold, BTN calls $0.35, 2 folds

    Flop: ($0.85, 2 players)
    Hero bets $0.60, BTN raises to $1.80, $1.2 to Hero ($9.05)?
    Last edited by Penneywize; 08-15-2011 at 06:20 PM.

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